Kansas City @ Cleveland
Kansas City +115 over Cleveland

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Posted at 3:30 PM EST and are subject to change. 

Kansas City +115 over Cleveland

6:10 PM EST. Daniel Lynch (LHP - KC) could be unowned in some deep leagues given the struggles he had in 2021 and his mediocre stats early in 2022 (3.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 39 IP). A deeper look reveals several reasons for optimism, including plenty of whiffs (13.0% swing & miss rate), first-pitch strikes (64%) and volume of strikes (33% ball%). In his last start, his swing and miss rate was 16%. Dude has a nice BB/K split of 17/37 in 39 frames. Daniel Lynch draws a great matchup, as the opposing Guardians have a .600 OPS versus left-handed pitching which is the worst in MLB.

Cal Quantrill (RHP - CLE) has seemingly been validated after the first eight weeks of the season covering his first eight starts. The man has posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 47 innings but it’s fool’s gold at its finest. A deeper look reveals plenty of reasons for pessimism: 15% K%, 10% BB%, 5% K-BB%, 38% grounders with zero dominant outings. To put that another way, he has walked 19 and struck out 28 batters in 47 innings with a horrible swing and miss rate of 7%. Quantrill has the worst skills among sub-4.00 ERA starters in the AL. His stuff isn't fooling anyone but a confluence of luck driven stats (25% hit rate, 80% strand rate, .255 BABIP, etc) has his surface ERA shining. That shine is about to turn to rust. This is a bad starting pitcher with an xERA of 6.02 and must be faded whenever he’s favored.

This is a pitcher v pitcher wager. We get the vastly superior pitcher at a price against a starter that is horrible under the hood. If one was so inclined, one could make this a 5-inning wager instead of a full game and take the bullpen out of the equation for the most part. K.C.’s pen ranks dead last in the majors. That’s food for thought.

The reason we do not play five innings is because if our team is losing after five, we have no shot of winning. That’s one reason but more importantly, we have the option to LIVE BET, meaning that if K.C. is leading by one run after five frames and both pitchers are out, we can flip our bet and “FREE ROLL” on Cleveland, as they will be plus money if they are trailing after five.

For example, let’s assume one wagers $100 on K.C at +125. Our liability is $100 while we stand to profit $125. Now let’s assume K.C. is leading after 5 innings by one run, the price on Cleveland would probably be in the +120 range. We can then take $125 (what we stand to profit and bet it on Cleveland at +120. That removes all risk and gives us a free roll on Cleveland for $50, as the $125 wager at +120 odds will return $270.00. Take away the $220 we have invested and the payout is either $220 (we break even if KC wins or $270 if Cleveland wins and we would therefore profit $50). Of course, if K.C is up by two runs, the takeback will be much larger (around +200) and we’ll therefore be free-rolling for much more.



Our Pick

Kansas City +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)