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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Ottawa +6½ -105 over Edmonton

9:00 PM EST. Everyone loves backing a home favorite that's expected to "get right," and that's exactly what they are doing tonight. Edmonton is coming off a disappointing result and will attract plenty of support simply because it's back at Commonwealth Stadium against a winless opponent. That's the type of setup that often creates the play for the otherside. The REDBLACKS have been knocking on the door for weeks, playing far better than their record suggests, and they're due to cash in on one of these close games. Whether they win outright or not, this has all the makings of a four-quarter fight rather than the comfortable Edmonton victory many are expecting.

Ottawa has quietly found an offensive rhythm, particularly through the passing game, and the confidence level has grown with each passing week. The REDBLACKS aren't playing like a team that's ready to pack it in—they're playing like one that's getting tired of hearing about moral victories. Edmonton has earned respect with its physical style, but the Elks have also benefited from a favorable stretch where things seemed to bounce their way. At some point, every team discovers that football has a short memory. If Ottawa protects the football and keeps the pressure on, the Elks are going to have to earn every inch of this one.

Public perception has inflated the favorite just enough to make the dog the better bet. Ottawa doesn't have to be perfect—they just have to be pesky, and the REDBLACKS have embraced that role lately. Expect them to scrap for every first down, frustrate Edmonton with timely plays, and hang around long enough to make anyone laying points sweat through the fourth quarter. Sometimes the ugliest dog at the track is the one that cashes the ticket, and Ottawa has that look today. Take the REDBLACKS plus the points and enjoy watching everyone who laid the chalk begin checking the live odds by halftime.

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