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Pinnacle +5½ -110 BET365 +5½ -110 Sportsinteraction +5½ -110
Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change
BC Lions +5½ over Calgary
McMahon Stadium – Calgary, AB
9:30 PM ET. Every outlet from TSN to the betting preview mills is parroting the same story: Vernon Adams Jr. gets his “revenge” game against his former team. It’s a nice headline, one that casual bettors love to buy into, but it’s an angle that has been recycled in this league for decades. The idea that a quarterback suddenly finds another gear because he’s facing a past employer is fluff at best, and dangerous betting rationale at worst. Calgary backers are paying a premium because the market laps up the narrative.
On paper, the Stamps have home field, a better record, and extra rest off the bye. That’s all priced in already. What isn’t being priced correctly is BC’s ability to score in bunches and stay inside inflated margins. The Lions’ defense has been shaky, no doubt, but the offense has carried them and continues to hum along behind Nathan Rourke. Even against a top-tier unit, BC has the weapons to hang a crooked number on any defense, Calgary’s included. Spotting more than a field goal in a league built on volatility and late-game swings is asking a lot, especially against an opponent that matches up well through the air.
This isn’t about fading Calgary outright, it’s about fading the “revenge game” tax that has the Stamps spotting too much lumber. The market is leaning on a tired angle and an emotional storyline instead of the true gap between these two clubs. Revenge doesn’t cover spreads — execution does.
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Our Pick
BC Lions +5½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)