Pinnacle  +6½ -110  BET365  +6½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +6½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +6½ over Montreal

Percival Molson Stadium – Montreal, QC

7:30 PM ET. When Nick Arbuckle was ruled out, the market lost its mind. Montreal opened -2½ and was quickly steamed all the way up to -6½, as the injury chasers piled on to fade Jarret Doege. This is the definition of an inflated number. The Alouettes aren’t spotting a touchdown here because they’re four points better than they were yesterday; they’re spotting it because the market is overvaluing one piece of news.

Montreal’s 48–31 win in Saskatchewan is the other half of the inflation. It was their high-water mark, and bettors are paying a premium to back it again. Trouble is, the Als surrendered over 400 yards in that game and still have the same flaws they carried all season. Doege, meanwhile, doesn’t need to play hero ball. He just has to be functional against a defense that isn’t nearly as bulletproof as the surface stats suggest. With the Argos catching their biggest takeback of the season, the value swings entirely to the underdog.

Toronto is a bad team in a bad spot, but that’s exactly why the line looks the way it does. Our job is to fade the overreaction, not buy into it. This is the “injury chaser tax” built into a number that doesn’t reflect the true gap between these clubs.

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