Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 1:45 PM EST and are subject to change.
Ottawa +193 over Calgary
There are many different ML numbers around town, but Pinnacle is tops at +193. You can play Ottawa at Bet365 at +190 as well.
7:30 PM EST. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has taken more hits in this space this season than any other pivot in this league and for good reason—he’s toast. Now, that’s not a bold statement here in Week 9, but if you recall our Week 1 write-up on Calgary, we wrote this, “Bo Levi is probably ready to be put out to pasture, but it looks like the Stamps are going to parade him around one more time like the prized stud he used to be. That figures to make the Stampeders vulnerable.” Well, six games into this season and Calgary is 4-2 with its only two losses coming to the undefeated Blue Bombers. On the surface, it doesn’t really look that bad. However, if you’ve watched the Stampeders and Mitchell specifically, you know that they do not pass the eye test.
Mitchell was broken and beat up last season and those lingering injuries have got to be bothering him here in 2022. Going back to last season, Bo Levi has only 17 touchdowns to 16 interceptions in 16 games. That is not a small sample size. What made Mitchell such a threat when he burst on the scene was his ability to run, which either helped extend plays or allowed him to scamper for plus yardage. We hate to quote ourselves again, but prior to game one we wrote this, “Mitchell has a bad wing and a bad wheel. Not attributes one would normally want in a starting quarterback.” Bo Levi hasn’t run for a touchdown in seven years, y’all. We’re not sure what kind of dirt Mitchell has on Stamps’ coach Dave Dickenson, but it must be good. Dude should have been hauled out behind the barn months ago.
Speaking of coach, “DD,” he did not make the trip to Ottawa, as he remains in COVID-19 protocol, which adds another wrinkle to the Stamps game plan this week. Dickenson had hoped to fly out today to meet the team at TD Bank Stadium, but that is not going to happen, as the team released a statement saying that special teams coordinator Mark Kilam will be the acting head coach while the offensive play calling will be a “collaborative effort.” If we know anything about football coaches, regardless of position, they love to “collaborate”. In case you thought the inmates would be running the asylum, former coach and general manager John Hufnagel will be on the sidelines to “support” the entire coaching staff. Gee, thanks, dad.
On the flip side, the Redblacks may have found their man in Caleb Evans, who has looked pretty damn good with Jeremiah Masoli out of the way. Evans is everything Bo Levi used to be. A run and gun pivot that can make plays. Much has been made this week about the Redblacks’ futility at TD Bank Stadium (they are just 2-17 at home going back to 2019), but Ottawa has been a tough out in 2022. The Redblacks’ home losses are all by a converted touchdown or less. 19-12 to Winnipeg, 34-31 to B.C., and 40-33 to Montreal. Two of those football teams are pretty damn good. Not you, Alouettes. Not you.
Situationally speaking, this is a tough hill for the Stamps to climb. They are playing on six days' rest, traveling across two time zones, are without their head coach, oh and by the way, also won’t have the league’s best running back in tow, as Ka’Deem Carey has officially been ruled out. When you bring a one-legged QB to an ass-kicking contest, you’d like to have your best offensive player in the fold, but that’s not happening.
It’s going to be tempting to scoop up these points, but we're not interested in that proposition here. With the Redblacks finally getting off the schneid last Sunday and the Stamps looking down the barrel, we are going to go for the kill shot. We trust the Redblacks have hit rock bottom and are on the rise. We cannot say the same for Calgary. The Stamps are on the decline and are going to be on our fade list more often than not. We hope to see you at the pay window when the Redblacks get win #2.
Ottawa +193 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.86)