Today's Free Picks for
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Posted on August, 3 at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.
Montreal +197 over Winnipeg
7:30 PM EST. We are going to get in on this one early and the best number we found was at Pinnacle with the Alouettes to win on the money line at +197. You can also get +187 at 888Sport or +185 at Bet365.
The Blue Bombers are undefeated. They’ve covered six of their last seven games, including four straight. When you pay out like a broken slot machine, the market is going to take notice. We are not even halfway into this season and the Bombers are just +120 to win the Grey Cup. Y’all, a lot can happen between now and the end of November.
Rarely do we discuss injuries in this space, as they are factored into the line and more often than not, the market will overreact to a player or player’s absence, but that is not the impression we get here in Week 9 with Winnipeg. After all, the Bombers have been plugging away with a patchwork lineup and have yet to stumble. However, the Bombers’ injury list this week is long and it’s a who’s, who. Those that did not practice and are not expected to play tomorrow night include wideouts Greg Ellingson (their #1) and Nic Demski, offensive lineman Patrick Neufeld, running back Johnny Agustien, fullback Mike Miller, defensive back Malcolm Thompson, and star pass rusher Jackson Jeffcoat. There are at least two Hall of Famers on that list, which is hard to ignore.
Blue Bombers’ quarterback Zach Collaros has lost just two games as the starter in a Winnipeg uniform, despite not having a stellar season. Sure, last week in Calgary was a big one, where he went 22-for-30 for 270 and four touchdowns, but the game prior, in Edmonton, Collaros was god-awful, going just 7-for-16, for 188 yards with two touchdowns, but also two interceptions. Dude was outgunned by Elks’ third-string pivot, Taylor Cornelius. When looking at Collaros’ body of work in 2022, he’s played his best games against the two top teams in the West, B.C., and Calgary, while playing down to his competition when playing dregs like Edmonton, Ottawa, and Hamilton. Will this Thursday nighter against the 2-5 Alouettes get his juices flowing? We’ll see.
We don’t like the Als from the top down, but it does not matter what we “like,” as this is a fade on the Bombers plain and simple. We’re not going to slobber on Trevor Harris or head coach Danny Maciocia after ripping them week after week, but we are going to trust that they can not only keep this game in range, but win it.
Montreal catches Winnipeg in a tough spot. The Bombers will play their second game in six days and third in 14. All of those games have been on the road by the way, and covers this league from Vancouver to Montreal. That’s four games in four different time zones. Would it be unreasonable to suggest the Bombers could be running on fumes in Week 9 or that they even care about a game against the Als. We trust that possibility is very real and we're willing to back it up with our bankroll. It is near impossible to sustain intensity for an entire season and to us, this looks like preciselty the perfect time to catch the Bombers extremely flat and extremely beatable. Keep the points, Montreal outright is the call.
Montreal +197 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.94)