Ottawa @ Toronto
Toronto -4 -105 over Ottawa

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Posted at 9:30 AM EST and are subject to change.

Toronto -4½ over Ottawa

5:00 PM EST. Frankly, this line does not make sense. We want to put this out there because it’s either a sucker bet or a bad number that the oddsmakers put out and it’s not the first “bad number” they put out this year so once again we’ll focus on value but before we continue, let’s establish that Toronto is the best team in the East and it’s not close. Furthermore, the Argos have flourished the past two seasons at home. In fact, they've only lost two regular-season games, the season finale last year when they rested every starter versus Edmonton and this year's one-point loss to Winnipeg when the Argos missed a convert late in the game that would have forced overtime. We’d argue that head coach Ryan Dinwiddie should have gone for two points and the win, but that’s neither here nor there. We will continue to advocate that each coach employs a gambler on the sidelines. Gamblers can always see the icebergs ahead and usually know a thing or two about win probability.

Oddsmakers peg the Boatmen to win this contest against the 0-6 Redblacks, but in this business winning and covering are two very different beasts. The question is why is hapless Ottawa being given so much respect here? If Toronto’s success at BMO Field wasn’t enough for you, Argo quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson is 6-0 against the Reblacks in his career. Dude can’t wait to play these guys. If his flawless record was still not enough, MBT is gunning for 10,000 career yards in the CFL. He’s got 97 to go in case you were counting and right now looks like the best QB in the business.

Two reasons that Bethel-Thompson is in position to reach such a significant milestone are the back-to-back showings against the Roughriders where he put up 612 yards in wins of 30-24 and 31-21, respectively. That 10 point win last win in Saskatchewan was damn impressive, and totally flattered the Green Riders, as the Boatmen outgained Sasky by 322 yards, had 28 first downs to nine and won the time of possession by nearly 15 minutes. It was as dominant a performance as we’ve seen from a team this season and it sets up Toronto to control its fate, as it will play seven of its next eight games against East Division foes. Three of those games are against these Redblacks.

Ottawa has had 10 days to prepare for this one after dropping a 40-33 decision at home to Montreal in Week 7. In Week 6, the Redblacks were edged out by 25-23 in Hamilton. We’re going to focus on that game here when dissecting where the value is this afternoon. First, the Redblacks were an eight-point pooch in Hamilton. Today they are a much shorter price than that, which is bordering on absurd. While Ottawa covered that contest, if you watched that game, you know how truly pathetic the Redblacks were. The Tabbies gave them chance after chance by way of turnovers to win that game. Ottawa won the turnover battle that day at +4. You are not supposed to lose a game when that many bounces are in your favor.

If one wanted to go back just one more contest, we’d find Ottawa getting whacked, 28-13, in Week 5 by the same Roughriders side the Argos just dummied not once, but twice. If Ottawa plays a perfect game and keeps pace here, so be it, but when you are going bad, it can be impossible to pull the nose up. We are going to trust that this line is short and so we’ll gladly swallow the points.

Our Pick

Toronto -4 -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)