Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +155 BET365 +150 Sportsinteraction  888Sport +150

WTA San Diego Open

Caroline Garcia +155 over Danielle Collins

Thursday, Sep 14. 7:00 EST. Betting on Caroline Garcia is a road few would take at this point. Formerly a top 5-ranked women's tennis player in the world, Garcia can't seem to get out of her way lately. She lost immediately in the U.S. Open, dropping two straight sets and winning only five games against an opponent (Y.F. Wang, ranked #96) that would have been an afterthought in previous competitions. She also flopped instantly throughout August at smaller venues, not winning a single match in the Cincinnati Masters, Canadian Open, or Citi Open. On top of this negative sentiment is the fact that she has yet to beat Danielle Rose Collins, her opponent today, who's 2-0 against the underdog in past contests. 

Collins, meanwhile, has seen her stock rise. She had formidable second-round showings in the U.S. Open and Wimbledon, and only Iga Swiatek, the world's #1, was able to defeat her in deep runs at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Masters. Now ranked in the top 45, Collins brings an arsenal of power and finesse. She's won 70.8% of her service games and hits her first serve at 67.2% in 2023; both impressive marks.

So then why are we interested in Carolina Garcia today? One word: regression. Garcia has played against the best tennis players in the world for the better part of a decade. In 2022 she won big, adding four titles to an already stacked trophy mantle. Garcia also owns a 78.6% win-rate in service games on hard surfaces this year.

Garcia's motivation can wane- she's been a constant force in tennis for a long time and it's hard to maintain the same level of drive month in and month out. One positive is she has a major rest advantage today, gaining two weeks off thanks to her early-exit in the U.S. Open, and we love that she dominated Sloane Stephens in the first and third sets of her first match in San Diego. She ended 2022 playing some of the best tennis of her life; we're not counting out the possibility that she could do the same thing this year. The value is on Garcia's improvement, and we're getting a plus-money pooch on a more polished and experienced ace. 

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