Pinnacle -½ +137 BET365 -½ +137  Sportsinteraction -½ +137 888Sport -½ +137

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

AS Monaco +137 (To Win in Full Time) over Aston Villa

Stade-King Louis II – Monaco City, Monaco

UEFA Champions League

12:45 PM ET. The English Premier League carries an air of superiority in global football, and Aston Villa’s presence as a +200 underdog in this spot reflects the market’s overvaluation of EPL sides in European competitions. That brand bias skews perception, as the Villains are being priced as if they are more than capable of handling a Monaco side that, despite recent struggles, remains a formidable opponent on their day.

Aston Villa’s road woes are well-documented. Over their last 11 away matches, they’ve posted a goal differential of -7 and managed just four wins. Contrast this with their home form, where they’ve lost only once in the same span, boasting a +6 goal differential, and the discrepancy becomes glaring. Away from the comforts of Villa Park, the Villains are a shadow of their home selves.

Monaco, for their part, has had a rough patch, with losses to Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, and Reims (on penalties). However, context is key. Losses to elite sides like Arsenal and PSG are far from indictments, as both are among the top clubs in Europe. Aston Villa, while solid, doesn’t belong in that echelon, and this represents a significant step down in class for “Les Rouge et Blanc.”

The market may view Monaco’s recent form as a red flag, but the pricing tells a different story. At +137, Monaco is being positioned as the rightful favorite, suggesting the oddsmakers see value in the Ligue 1 side to impose their will at home

This is a classic case of the market overvaluing the EPL badge while undervaluing the nuances of form and context. Monaco at home against a Villa side that struggles on the road is a bet we’re more than willing to make.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play:

Pinnacle +175 BET365 +175  Sportsinteraction +175 888Sport +175

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Wythenshawe Amateurs +175 over Atherton Collieries

Dreams2Reality Stadium – Atherton, Wigan, England

England Northern League Division One – United Kingdom Soccer

2:45 PM ET. The narrative surrounding Wythenshawe Amateurs is one of despair. Sitting 20th in the league and battling to avoid relegation, the Ammies are being dismissed by the market as a team already destined for the drop. Their winless streak, lasting from October 2024 until recently, only fuels the perception that this is a side out of its depth in the Northern Premier League West Division, but perception rarely tells the full story, and this matchup against Atherton Collieries is a prime example.

The Ammies broke their slump with a 2-1 road win over Newcastle Town, showing that they can perform under pressure when it matters most. While the market remains fixated on Wythenshawe’s tough run of results, it fails to consider the context. Losses to top-table teams like Chasetown, Mossley, and Trafford don’t diminish their competitive edge. Add to that a derby loss to Wythenshawe Town, where form often goes out the window, and it becomes clear this team has endured a brutal schedule.

Despite their struggles, Wythenshawe has risen to the occasion against formidable opponents. They’ve drawn with Witton Albion, one of the league’s hottest teams, and held Stalybridge Celtic to a stalemate on the road—a notoriously tough place to earn points. These results reveal a battle-tested side capable of upsetting the odds.

Atherton, on the other hand, comes in off a 2-1 loss to Kidsgrove Athletic, a game where they were down a man. The market is quick to excuse that defeat, leaning instead on their surprising 3-1 road win over Stalybridge Celtic, a result that has inflated their stock dramatically. Now listed as even-money favorites, the Colls are being priced as if they’re a dominant force, which they are not.

With a tough match against Runcorn Linnets on deck, Atherton is in prime position for a letdown. Meanwhile, Wythenshawe will view this as a critical match in their fight for survival. The Ammies bring value as a live underdog, and we’re happy to side with them to upset the Colls on their own turf.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play: