Top Rank Boxing
Teofimo Lopez/Jamaine Ortiz NOT go 12-Round Distance

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Teofimo Lopez/Jamaine Ortiz NOT go 12-Round Distance +150

WBO Super Lightweight Championship

Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas

8:00 PM EST. It really doesn’t get any better than this in terms of value. It wasn’t long ago that Teofimo “The Takeover”, Lopez was supposed to be the next big thing. He looked unstoppable, and also looked like he was headed for all-time-greatness. When he defeated top pound-for-pounder, Vasiliy Lomachenko, by a Unanimous Decision (UD) in Oct. 2020, the sky appeared to be the limit.

Teofimo was so dominant early-on that a stoppage appeared a very real possibility. Lomachenko was crafty enough to survive, and turned the corner late, but it wasn’t enough, as The Takeover left The Bubble at The MGM Grand, with the IBF, WBA and WBO belts. It all went sour shortly thereafter, though.

Personal, including money problems, was the trouble in the air, as he prepared to defend his titles vs 10:1 underdog George Kambosos Jr., in Nov., 2021, at MSG in New York. Experts suggested that Lopez would steamroll the undefeated, but seemingly outmatched, outclassed and relatively untested Australian. Many were calling for a blowout…a first-round knockout, even but it was not to be. The outside distractions were massive. It was a different Lopez who entered the ring that fateful night, one who was apparently flat broke and unfocused.

‘Ferocious’ George fought the fight of his life (out of his skin, as the ol’ saying goes), even scoring a flash knockdown in the first round. How’s that for the ol’ proverbial switcheroo?! Teofimo had Kambosos down in the 10th, & it looked like he was gonna stop George, but he couldn’t finish off the granite-chinned underdog. G.K. got the nod via a Split Decision. Talk about a fast fall from grace and one need look no further than that shocker in New York.

Since then, Lopez has reeled off three straight wins. His most recent was a huge one vs. former undisputed champion, Josh Taylor, a UD against the undefeated, tricky southpaw. His confidence is back, fully restored and very likely at an all-time high. Teofimo says that he’s happy now and in a great place. He’ll earn over 2.5 million and also said, matter-of-factly only, that this fight will end in a knockout. This writer believes him and agrees.

Now to the meat with the good news being that Lopez is only 26 and in spite of the previous stumble, there’s a whole career ahead of him with hardly any mileage on the boxing odometer.

His opponent is 17-1-1, with 8 KOs. Jamaine ‘The Technician’ Ortiz, is 27, but it says here that he’ll get broken-down + stopped here and it might come early. The 7-1 pooch is an underdog in this range for a reason, as the books aren’t in the business of giving away money. Ortiz drew with Joseph Adorno back in April of 2021, but could have been stopped. Ortiz was down in the 2nd & 7th rounds -- really twice in round 2 and looked like he turned his back &/or was out-on-his feet for a second in round 7. Many a referee would’ve stopped it, right-then-and-there. Incidentally, Adorno is 18-3-2, and since then has gone 4-3 against limited opposition. There were two straight losses until his last, a W vs. 36-yr.-old Colombian, Jonathan Perez (41-39, 25 KO losses). Joseph stopped him in the 5th, of a scheduled 6-rounder. Thrilling, eh?! Before Adorno’s fight with Ortiz, he DREW against Hector Garcia Montes (14-7-3). The problem for Jamaine is that he is not a power-puncher and he’s shown to have a suspect chin.

These two boxers fought in the amateurs, with Lopez winning the 3-rounder. He knows him and has put in his homework. Ortiz has left no stone left unturned for the fight of his life tonight.

On paper it looks to be a distance fight because Ortiz is a/The ‘TECHNICIAN’ has never been stopped. The matches are fought in a RING, though, not on paper. Shawn Porter was never stopped, either until Terrence Crawford knocked him out and the list goes on and on of fighters getting finished for the first time. Ortiz is certainly not immune.

Jamaine beat a worn-out and older former champion in Jamel Herring in his third last, a 10-rounder, however, it was a shell of the former Jamel, as he was brutalized in a 10th-round stoppage loss in his previous to the light-hitting Shakur Stevenson.

This is really Last Chance Saloon time for Mr. Lopez. Does he want to be wealthy and make up for lost time while fulfilling his potential or does he want to be a bum? He’ll be fighting in his hometown and backyard, so he figures to be as amped up as he’s ever been. Everything is in place for Lopez to make a huge statement. This fight will be on ESPN, in front of millions of fans around the globe. If he can be the first person to stop Ortiz, his stock will go through the roof and we promise you the chalk is acutely aware. Prior to his last four contests, all of Jamaine’s fights have been 8-rounders, or less.

If Teofimo has his head back on, this will be a mismatch and he should be able to get the stoppage over an outclassed and outgunned foe. It’s not out-of-the-realm that he does it early, either but regardless, we find tremendous value in this one to go inside the distance at a pretty sweet price.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Teofimo Lopez/Jamaine Ortiz NOT go 12-Round Distance +150 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.00)

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