Australia Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng
Sabalenka/Zheng over 20½ +106 over

Posted at 11:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O20½ +106 BET365 O20½ -110 Sportsinteraction O20½ -110 888Sport O20½ +100

Aryna Sabalenka/Qinwen Zheng over 20½

Best Odds: +106 at Pinnacle

3:30 AM EST. The women's final is upon us at the Australian Open and it beckons a fantastic opportunity for Aryna Sabalenka to earn her second grand-slam title. The only issue with that coming to fruition? Her opponent is in very good form.

Qinwen Zheng is ranked #15 in the world, certainly nothing to bat our eyes at, but no one expected her to get this far. Like Sabalenka, Zheng has benefitted from two elites - Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina - getting booted out of the tournament early, but that doesn't mean she hasn't earned every point. The 5'10", 21 year old Chinese competitor has impressed throughout her time in Sydney, outlasting two tough opponents in Anna Kalinskaya, who mirrors Sabalenka's style, and national rival Wang Yafan. The other three matches, all against formidable women, she dominated, winning in straight sets and sacrificing only 17 games in the process. Aside from the typical gaffes we see out of any player, Zheng's form has been impeccable in January. Against her last opponent, the surging Dayana Yastremska, she earned an exceptional 76% win-rate on first serves. In other matchups, she scored marks as high as 90%. Zheng is at her best right now, and no-doubt a dangerous enemy for tonight's favorite.

Everyone knows how well Sabalenka has played in The Land Down Under, but this match is bound to be a bigger test for the Belarusian, and not just because of how legitimate her opponent is. All the pressure is on the 6'0" power-hitter, who at around -600 is a massive favorite to cement her place in Aussie lore. She's beyond capable and we expect her to win, but we also don't expect it to come that easily. Sabalenka has only left the victor in two tournaments over the last calendar year. One was a rare win over Swiatek in the Madrid Open last May, the other was a 3-set, 29-game battle against Rybakina last January, at the Australian Open. 

We've seen Sabalenka's nerves get the best of her in too many situations in the past, Sure, on paper, Zheng is not in the same class as the world's #2 player, but don't tell her that. Zheng is playing with confidence and poise and looks to have reached new levels on both offense and defense. Just one competitive set would jettison this total way over the listed number, and that's a wager we can't ignore, especially at its current value.

Farley

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Our Pick

Sabalenka/Zheng over 20½ +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

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