Posted Wednesday, July 5 at 11:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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John Deere Classic

Event preview

Gambling is the name of the game at the John Deere Classic this week, as the PGA TOUR makes its annual stop-off at the putting shootout that is TPC Deere Run. With no disrespect intended, that’s the only reason that a quartet as disparate as J.T. Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim can win the same event in recent memory.

Poston is the defending champion after winning wire-to-wire 12 months ago, and given the sparse nature of the field, he may just fancy his chances of retaining the title. The woefully out-of-form Cameron Young is one of the favorites (18-1) alongside Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley and Keith Mitchell, who cannot be described as prolific champions. Who knows what will become of Ludvig Aberg in the future, but 20/1 for a player in his fourth PGA TOUR start is plenty short for us. Point being, this is a good event to bet on because a bomb could strike.

This is one of the most open events on the PGA TOUR rotation – a week where a hot flat stick and above-average ball-striking will be more than enough to post a winning total. There is simply very little to worry about at TPC Deere Run, a medium-length Par 71 where three Par 5s and a drivable Par 4 will make up the majority of the scoring. Only a couple of holes, including the tricky 18th, will require full concentration.

It’s very noteworthy that each of the last five winners at the John Deere Classic has started their journey at odds of 50/1 or longer – Kim was a mammoth 200/1. This is manna from heaven for longshot backers like us so if we can crack the code and be on the right side of putting variance, we could be in the mix on Sunday.

What We’re Looking For

When the FBI are hunting a serial killer, they come up with a profile for the archetypal individual that fits the bill. If they had the John Deere Classic as their victim, coming up with a profile of a winner would stump even their sharpest of analytical thinkers. Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim; put their mugshots up on a whiteboard and try to connect the dots. You will do well to find any evidence that links the quartet together.

Each simply ‘had a week’, be it on the greens or – in the case of Poston who ranked first for SG: Tee-to-Green – an unexpectedly excellent week of ball striking.

At least Poston had offered a clue as to what was coming – he had just finished T2 at the Travelers Championship prior to his win in Illinois, so perhaps our profile should focus on exactly that: players heading to the JDC in good form.

The leaderboards here in recent years haven’t coughed up a series of premium ball-strikers or classy tee-to-green merchants, and instead what you do off the tee is of little relevance – last year, many on the top page of the leaderboard added 20% to their Driving Accuracy ratio to GIR, which shows how important approaching well out of the rough is. But we can eliminate most of golf’s weapons from our inquiries and instead focus on one tool that our ice-cold killer will utilize: the putter. Yes, the leaderboards at the JDC have been well stocked by reliable putters in years gone by, and that is once again the focus of our investigation in 2023.

Here’s our list of players that hold value with a decent chance to win.

To Win Outright:

Taylor Montgomery 94-1 (Pinnacle)

You may recall a time last Fall when Taylor Montgomery was starting events with better fields than this at sportsbook odds of 30/1. The reason? He looked like a PGA TOUR winner in waiting. Since then, it’s been a tough transition to life at golf’s top table and he has struggled, but one thing that hasn’t changed is Montgomery’s absolute brilliance on the greens. Less than a year ago there would have been laughter if you’d said Montgomery would start at odds of 50/1 for a tournament as weak as this, so if he can just find a way to get his ball onto the greens at TPC Deere Run and leave birdie putts, he could wind back the clock to better times – this is a guy that posted eight top-20 finishes in nine starts not all that long ago.

Brendon Todd 100-1 (Pinncle)

As fellow Todd-ites will know, there’s only a few weeks a year when Brendon can truly compete and the John Deere Classic is one of them. Todd’s lack of length won’t be penalized here and he will enjoy a handy edge on many in the field thanks to his assured putting stroke. Todd’s form has been up and down – as you would expect from such a short hitter, but when conditions allow he can very much be a danger at the top of the leaderboard. T8 amongst classy company at the Wells Fargo Championship in May is evidence of that. We find 100-1 at Pinny and 80-1 at BET365. He’s worth a bet.

Dylan Wu 66-1

An incredible opening round of 65 saw Dylan Wu scorch to the top of the leaderboard at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and while he descended the standings from there it was another notable entry into his impressive young career so far. In 23 starts this term, Wu has made 16 cuts and recorded six top-25s against tougher fields than this one. Such consistency has been built on excellent approach play, but the stats suggest that Wu is starting to solve the riddle on the greens too – he gained strokes on the best players in the world while putting at the U.S. Open, while adding a further +0.91 in Detroit last week too. Who knows how far that hot hand can take him? Dude ranks 7th ON TOUR in Greens in Regulation and 18th in Total Birdies.

Justin Lower 179-1 (Pinnacle)

After an excellent start to the season, when he banked a handful of top-20s, the wheels have rather fallen off for Justin Lower. But improvements of late – T25 at the Canadian Open, T8 last time out at the Rocket Mortgage Classic – have righted the ship, with his approach play in particular enjoying a renaissance. For a player who ranks 14th on TOUR for SG: Putting, that is noteworthy indeed – in those two outings mentioned, Lower gained a goliath +3.60 strokes on the field with his flat stick. Price here does not reflect how dangerous he is in a field as weak as this one. He also ranks 30th ON TOUR in Total Birdies and 39th in Par 4 Scoring. Big overlay here so perhaps take him top-5 too.

Mark Hubbard 60-1

The Rocket Mortgage Classic was the first event since early April that Mark Hubbard didn’t gain strokes on the field with his approach play. In the same timeframe, his putting has gained in authority too – not a huge amount, but enough for Hubbard to convert the birdie chances his awesome iron and wedge game had created. Those that believe in biorhythms will have noted Hubbard’s top-five finishes in the Barbasol and Barracuda Championships at this time last year, so perhaps there will be more summer lovin’ for Hubbard this week too.

Lucas Glover 55-1

A curious sort, Lucas Glover has a habit of finding form at just the right time. The 2021 John Deere Classic winner has now followed T20 at the Canadian Open with T4 at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, and so he couldn’t wish for more confidence ahead of a return to TPC Deere Run. Notable was how well Glover rolled the rock on the greens at Detroit GC – a world away from the struggles he has faced with his putter this season. A confident Glover is now returning to a favorite old haunt and we’ll have a small slice of that.

Chez Reavie 60-1

If you scan back to the start of April, things have been going rather nicely for Chez Reavie. In the ten outings he has made in that timeframe, Reavie has missed just one cut and posted three finishes of T11 or better. His approach play and putting in that window have both been excellent, so there’s absolutely no reason not to expect another strong showing in Illinois. We prefer him on fantasy teams as opposed to winning outright, which is why he is listed here.

Use these and some of your own to make fantasy teams or to win outright.

Good luck!!!

Sherwood

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