Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +146 BET365 +130 Sportsinteraction +125   888Sport +130

N.Y. Islanders +146 over Tampa Bay

7:00 PM EST. OT included. The Lightning are winning at a high clip at the moment with eight victories in their last 10 games, including seven of their last eight and two in a row. The latest was a 3-1 win over Boston on Wednesday night, which followed a 3-2 overtime win over Anaheim. Despite the winning, the analytics do not back up those W’s. Since their March 2 overtime win over Montreal, the Bolts are just 20th in puck possession, 16th in high-danger scoring chances, and 20th in expected goals.

The pace at which the Bolts are winning is just not sustainable considering the effort they are putting in, which puts us in a potential position to profit because their stock is high, and they are still treated as hockey royalty in the market with their pedigree-based largely on successful Stanley Cup runs in years past, but the 2023-24 Lightning are not the same as years past. They are older and slower, and right now, their power play is the only thing keeping them afloat, as they’ve potted at least one PP marker in six of their last eight games. When that PP goal well eventually dries up, as power plays are apt to do, the Bolts are going to be in big trouble.

It wasn’t that long ago that it appeared the Islanders had hit their stride under new head coach Patrick Roy, and they had taken on his ornery personality. The Isles roared into March, winning six straight games as the calendar turned over. Since then, it’s been ugly, really ugly, and to say the Isles are going out of this month like a baby lamb might be the understatement of the season. New York has now won just two of its last nine games, which includes a six-game losing streak that nearly undid all the good their prior winning run had accomplished.

Although their current run is not good, the Isles are still in a position to take a crack at both the Flyers, whom they are five points back of and sit third in the Atlantic Division, and a Wild Card spot, as they sit four points back of the Capitals with just the Red Wings to leapfrog. The Islanders have two games in hand on Philly and one on Detroit, while the Caps have played 72 games, as New York has. The Islanders' stock is low, while the Lightning are grossly overperforming. “Buy low, sell high,” that is the mantra. This game fits that bill to a “T”.

Sherwood

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