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Oakland @ NEW YORK
Oakland +149 over NEW YORK

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +149 Bet365 +145 SportsInteraction +150 5DIMES +145

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. So much is going well for the Yankees. Aaron Judge has exceeded everyone’s expectations. Aaron Hicks has found another level. Top prospect Gleyber Torres has been promoted to Triple-A. Luis Severino and Michael Pineda are dealing it and many believe that it’s better than even odds that we will see Bryce Harper somewhere in the Yankee outfield in 2019. If feels like the next Yankee dynasty is taking shape but you are going to pay for that now. We’re not going to and one guy that is struggling is Masahiro Tanaka. While much of the market is attributing Tanaka’s poor stats to a slow start, a look deeper says it’s more than that. Tanaka is getting crushed by lefties (.352 OBA), but he’s being hit even more forcefully by righties (.411). Tanaka’s trouble appears to be twofold, as he’s relying less on his two best pitchers — his slider and splitter — decreasing their combined usage from 58% last year to 47% this year. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball more and he’s not locating as well with his fastball and splitter. Too often the splitter isn’t splitting. The pitch is flattening out and catching more plate than Tanaka can afford and this is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers that leave a pitch up and flat in the zone. Furthermore, Tanaka is being worked over by scouts, the media and his coaches. They are all offering advice and telling him why he’s struggling. Tanaka is getting all that pounded into his head 15 different ways and now he’s overthinking everything. His confidence is low and he’ll face a team that has a ton of power.

It may surprise you to learn that the A’s 68 jacks rank fifth highest in MLB and they play in a massive pitcher’s park. The four teams ahead of them play in hitter’s parks. If Oakland played half their games in a hitter’s park, they would be leading MLB in home runs and it might not be close because they are just three off the lead. That bodes well here against Tanaka, who is serving up bombs like crazy.

Update:

With Kendall Graveman being a late scratch, we’re still playing the A’s because the price is still appealing with Sean Manaea starting and the bet was more of a fade against Tanaka and the overpriced Yanks anyway.

Aside from that, there was lots to like from Manaea’s debut last year and even more to like this year. Last year, Manaea displayed elite command especially in the 2nd half. His first-pitch strike rate supported his control gains while his swing and miss rate and 2015 minor-league numbers suggest some K-rate upside. There was also more groundballs as the season went on. 17 of the 20 HR’s he allowed came vR, though hr/f suggests bad luck played a role. Manaea was poised to take a step up this year and while the numbers (5.24 ERA) says that hasn’t happened, the underlying numbers say it has. Manaea has made just seven starts this year. He has battled shoulder soreness so far in 2017, which likely has contributed to his ugly early results. Before you dismiss his breakout potential, note that few pitchers are missing more bats than Manaea (15% swing and miss rate), and he has paired that ability with one of the highest groundball rates in MLB (62% GB%). If healthy, Manaea stands a great shot at rebounding from his poor early results and we’re happy to get behind a pitcher with his ability at prices like this. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Oakland +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)

Arizona @ MILWAUKEE
Arizona +104 over MILWAUKEE

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +104 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +100

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. The Diamondbacks have won four in a row and nine of 10 while the Brewers have dropped four in a row so we have the hot versus cold angle working in our favor. The Brewers are suddenly struggling after a decent start and one could attribute their struggles to their weakening pitching staff.

Junior Guerra gets this start after being sidelined since leaving his Opening Day start after three innings with a calf strain. He has made two starts on a minor league rehab assignment, pitching into the seventh inning in his most recent start in Triple-A. Guerra will fill the rotation vacancy created when Milwaukee relegated Wily Peralta to the bullpen after making eight largely ineffective starts. Peralta averaged only five innings per start as his relatively poor control and inability to keep the ball in the park proved a flammable mix. Chase Anderson, originally slated for long relief work during spring training, yet forced into the rotation by injuries to other Milwaukee starters, will remain in the rotation.

Guerra went 9-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 122 innings for the Crew last year. This converted infielder spent years in the minors, independent ball, Mexico and Italy before dropping this surprise on everyone. But that's the thing; there's a reason no one expected this and his skills agree. Guerra’s MLB xERA was 4.18 and his command fell in the 2nd half. Therefore our mantra when looking at Guerra will be to look away from that ERA. Zack Godley is another under-the-radar starter worth targeting. Check out his strong skill base during his last four starts last year and first four starts this year: 8.3 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9, and a 56% groundball rate. That elite groundball rate is up to 65% this year with a low 13% line-drive rate. Godley has been especially effective against RH bats and his excellent 13% swing and miss rat gives his current K-rate plenty more upside. Godley is major-league ready and he’s starting to thrive.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Arizona +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

St. Louis @ COLORADO
COLORADO -1 +215 over St. Louis

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +202 Bet365 -1½ +215 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES -1½ +210

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

8:40 PM EST. We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

9-12 + 12.48 units

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

COLORADO -1 +215 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.30)

Atlanta @ SAN FRANCISCO
Atlanta +107 over SAN FRANCISCO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +107 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +102

Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

10:05 PM EST. Jamie Garcia is a 4.00 ERA pitcher and may never be better than that again. He’s a groundball specialist, which is more than enough ammo to back him here. You see, this wager is not about Garcia, it’s about fading a starter that is hanging by a thread.

There are a few starters this year that we’ve targeted to fade every time they take the hill when favored and Matt Cain has to be on that list. Cain has a BB/K split of 14/18 over his last 25 innings. In his last start, he walked three and struck out one. His swing and miss rate is down to 6% on the year and was 4% in his last two starts. His ERA is 4.91 but his xERA of 6.96 is one of three worst xERA’s in the league among qualified starters. As soon as the Giants get some capable arms back, a role change is in order for Cain. He’s headed to the pen at some point for sure. Last year, he was simply awful again with three more DL stints tossed in for good measure. Matt Cain has zero good skills left and if he and the Giants beat us here, good for them but we have to go with the best of it and let the chips fall where they may.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days53400.00+54.76
Season to Date83850.00+40.81
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