About Us| Sponsors| Contact
Follow us:   Sportswagers on Twitter

Picks By League

Cincinnati @ ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati +146 over ST. LOUIS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +146 Bet365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +142

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

4:15 PM EST. Notice the early start time. Also notice that the Cardinals defeated the Pirates last night on ESPN’s Sunday Night nationally televised game. We mention that because for bettors across Canada and the United States, that was the only thing to bet on last night and the Cardinals left a good impression. Throw in the Cardinals strong pedigree with that good impression and you’ll pay a bigger price on the Cardinals today than you would have had they not been seen my millions last night. The Cardinals can’t hit and they don’t field very well either so don’t be influenced by last night’s game. They’re also without Dexter Fowler, one of their few offensive catalysts and perhaps their best outfielder.

Brandon Finnegan comes off the 60 DL to make this start. He only started three games back in April so rust could be a factor but we’re not going to worry about that. There’s a good chance that Finnegan throws a strong five innings against a Cardinals’ nine that struggles (.693 OPS-25th) against southpaws. Furthermore, Finnegan was throwing beautifully prior to his injury with 14 K’s in 10 innings and a 14% swing and miss rate. He had a 57% groundball rate too. Finnegan showed good progress in his rehab assignments and if the Reds’ brass trusts he’s ready, so can we. Aside from that, Cinci’s offense is much more dangerous than the Cardinals offense.

Then there’s Michael Wacha. Coming off an injury-riddled 2016 campaign, Michael Wacha looked like he was back to full strength early on, as his ERA stood at 2.74 through seven starts. That seems like a lifetime ago because he’s been among the worst starters in the game since. Over his last six starts, Wacha’s WHIP is 2.12. That’s like pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning. His ERA/xERA split over his last six starts is 7.17/5.89. Wacha is walking batters at a high clip lately (13 BB’s in last 19 innings), which is the first sign of fatigue. A recurrence of a 2014 shoulder issue cost Wacha much of the 2nd half last year and now puts the remainder of his 2017 role in limbo. Impact on his command was the first thing to go last year and we’re seeing the same pattern this year. After July of last year, Wacha was absolutely pummeled and was relegated to the pen. It appears to us that he’s in trouble again so put him high on your fade list. Big time overlay here.    

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

Play:


Our Pick

Cincinnati +146 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)

Minnesota @ BOSTON
Minnesota +198 over BOSTON

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +198 Bet365  +180 SportsInteraction +200 5DIMES +195

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

7:10 PM EST. Chris Sale is Chris Sale. He’s the deserving front-runner for the AL’s Cy Young Award and has the record and skills to back up everything. Sale has a ridiculous 146 K’s in 107 innings. Still, that’s a lot of innings (and pitches) in less than half a season. Sale’s 39%/39% groundball/fly-ball profile is also a tiny bit concerning when considering this park and the fact that the Twinkies have some bombers. When Sale faced the Twinkies back on May 7, he struck out 10 but also allowed four earned runs. If Minnesota can duplicate that output or score two or three times here, we like our chances.

The Twins just went into Cleveland this past weekend and swept the Indians. They also defeated Cory Kluber in the middle game of that set while Boston dropped two of three to the Angels because they couldn’t score runs. If the Red Sox could not score against Parker Briswell, J.C Ramirez and host of relievers, it’s not out of the question that they’ll have a helluva time scoring on Jose Berrios. Furthermore, no team in MLB has hit fewer jacks than the Red Sox, which is another reason they’re too big a risk when spotting a price like this and now they’ll face Minnesota’s best pitcher, who truly is an ace.

Jose Berrios has filthy stuff. This stud has Cy Young potential and he appears to be getting better with each passing game too. Berrios has an outstanding BB/K split of 15/53 in 54 frames. His swing and miss rate over his last five starts is 15%. Berrios also has an elite 57% groundball rate, not to mention a great ERA, xERA and WHIP. Berrios was lights out in the minors. He had a “can’t miss” scouting report and one of the best minor-league pedigrees you’ll ever see. After struggling last year, his star quickly faded but we’ll call it nerves and put zero emphasis on it. Jose Berrios is the real deal. His 12% line-drive rate is the lowest in the majors among starters and it is 10 percentage points lower than Chris Sale’s 22% line-drive rate. Prices like this on pitchers like Berrios don’t come around often and if he stays healthy, it might be another 10 years before a price like this is offered on him again. If we get beat here, so be it, but it’ll be a cold day in hell when we pass on a price like this on a starter that is as good as the one we get working for us here. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

Play:


Our Pick

Minnesota +198 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.96)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday310.00+6.20
Last 30 Days45530.00+15.04
Season to Date1321410.00+61.35
bet365