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Chicago @ KANSAS CITY
Chicago +158 over KANSAS CITY

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +158 Bet365 +155 SportsInteraction +160 5DIMES +152

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:15 PM EST. Mike Pelfrey isn’t the target here. Pelfrey is capable of throwing four or five innings of decent ball or he could get knocked out in the first or second inning. We’ll live with whatever Pelfrey deals us today because this bet is all about taking back a big tag against the Royals with the grossly overpriced Jason Vargas on the hill.  

Jason Vargas is 34 years old and has been wallowing away in mediocrity for more than a decade. He somehow found something new this year and comes into this start with a very shiny 3.02 ERA after 18 starts. He was also an All-Star for the first time so the world is smiling upon him. We’re not. Vargas throws 85 MPH on his best day. His swinging strike rate is down from 12% in April to his career norm of 7% over his last five starts. Over his last five starts, Vargas has a 5.86 ERA, a 6.22 xERA and a 1.59 WHIP. The clock has struck midnight on this career stiff and now he’s priced like he’s been pitching like Jon Lester for a decade. He hasn’t. Jason Vargas has three good months in 12 years and now he’s just pitching like himself again. Furthermore, the White Sox offense is top-6 in OBA against LHP for the season (.341) and they have already seen Vargas twice already this season and hit 321 off him in those two starts. This is a massive overlay that must be played.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Chicago +158 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.16)

Texas @ TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY -1 +115 over Texas

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +119 Bet365 -1½ +115 SportsInteraction 1½ +110 5DIMES -1½ +115

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. After getting torched by the Orioles for four straight games in Baltimore, the Rangers went into Tampa last night and were down 3-1 going to the ninth before they rallied for two in the ninth and one in the 10th to win, 4-3. Week after week and day after day, we see the Rangers getting worse and we’re not going to allow one fluky victory change our tune. This is a weak team with a bunch of .240 hitters that will now be facing a starter that should carve them up.  

Chris Archer’s stock is down after he accrued 10 walks over his last 18 innings (3 GS) after posting only 6 BB in five games started in the month of June. Oddly enough, Archer’s 69% first-pitch strike rate in July is his best mark of any month so he hasn’t suddenly lost it. Archer figures to be throwing strikes and walking few like he’s been doing for years. When factoring in his 10.5 K’s/9 or better in every month since May, and mixing in a Texas offense that's 28th in OPS on the road (.683), while sitting last in OBA (on-base average) over the last seven days (.248), it equates to a prime play on Archer.

Andrew Cashner’s 3.58 ERA is better than Chris Archer’s 3.91 ERA but that only proves why we keep insisting to not buy ERA’s. Buy skills and in that regard, Andrew Cashner has few. We promise you that a major correction to Cashner’s surface ERA is forthcoming. Cashner has walked 38 batters and struck out a mere 43 in 88 frames so far. That’s one of the worst BB to K ratios in the league and his strikeout rate is also one of the worst. Cashner’s 7% swing and miss rate further reveals just how hittable he can be.  Andrew Cashner is making a living off of his high strand rate and low hit rate but both marks are unsustainable. He allows too many base-runners to be sporting an ERA under 4. Cashner’s xERA of 5.47 is almost three runs higher than Archer’s xERA and whether or not the corrections occur here is not the point. The point is that Cashner is living off luck while Archer is living off his great skills. That the Rangers cannot hit doesn’t hurt our chances either.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

TAMPA BAY -1 +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

San Diego @ SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego +124 over SAN FRANCISCO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +124 Bet365 +120 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +120

Posted at 10:50 AM EST. 

4:05 PM EST. The Padres have taken the first two games of this series and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. They fell behind 4-0 last night in the first inning, blew a three run lead in the ninth and then scored three times in extra winnings to finally win it, 12-9. The Madison Bumgarner dirt bike accident sort of captures the Giants season in a single frame. Johnny Cueto has gone off the rails. Brandon Crawford hasn't been himself. The general vibe around the Giants is that it might be time to break up the band—or at least to let that band be broken up naturally. It appears as though the entire group is waiting for something to happen at the deadline and now the Giants will send the struggling Matt Moore to the mound.

In 105 innings, Moore has a weak BB/K split of 42/87. His 5.87 ERA is right in line with his 5.41 xERA. Hitters are making more contact than ever against the Giants’ southpaw, which has led to unsightly rate stats and a seemingly unsustainable .347 BABIP. His 36%/23%/41% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates reveal just how volatile Moore is and his  once mid-90s mph velocity is still missing in action. Moore’s xERA over his last four starts covering 20 innings is 6.00. He’s also walked 10 batters over that span.

Luis Perdomo not only pitches for the unpopular Padres, he owns an ugly 4.94 ERA and 1.53 WHIP after 16 starts, leaving him unowned in many fantasy leagues and also very much undervalued ion the market. However,  Perdomo owns a solid skill foundation, driven in large part by a steep groundball tilt (67%). He's dominant against righties and the Giants will send five righties and four lefties (Span, Crawford, Belt, Panik) to face him here. A tweak against righties would help Perdomo consolidate his skills into better results but this kid has filthy stuff and his 3.85 xERA and his age strongly suggest better days are ahead. Pitching for the upstart Papas, who are in a much better state of mind than the Giants, this pup is live again today.

PLEASE NOTE: More games will be posted later today, including the CFL game between Calgary and Saskatchewan.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks

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Our Pick

San Diego +124 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.48)

Pittsburgh @ COLORADO
Pittsburgh -1 +195 over COLORADO

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +185 Bet365 -1½ +195 SportsInteraction N/A 5DIMES -1½ +200

Posted at 10:50 AM EST.

8:40 PM EST. We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

Year to date:

17-25 + 24.15 units

PLEASE NOTE: More games will be posted later today, including the CFL game between Calgary and Saskatchewan. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

Play:


Our Pick

Pittsburgh -1 +195 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.90)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday220.00+3.46
Last 30 Days45410.00+35.56
Season to Date1681790.00+80.63
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