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Washington @ FLORIDA
FLORIDA - +146 over Washington

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -½ +146 BET365 -½ +140 SportsInteraction -½ +135 5DIMES -½ +140

Posted at 6:00 PM EST.

7:35 PM EST. Regulation only. Although the Panthers played at home the same day those poor kids got shot, they never really had a chance to address it but they will tonight. It’s going to be an emotional night in Sunrise and if you’re the Capitals, you almost have to give this one up.

Vegas had an emotional night too soon after those 58 people were killed before the season began and some say that's why they came together so quickly and played so well. It's inspiring to the community. Sports’ brings people together at a time when tragedy strikes. A pro team can be a powerful tool for helping to heal the community. They have become a great equalizer — a sort of healer that help mend fresh wounds, both literally and metaphorically.

We’re going to trust the Panthers tonight to have a big game and an inspirational one. Aside from all that, the Panthers are playing some great hockey and with Roberto Luongo back, it solidifies the entire team and its confidence.

We’ve written about the Capitals being one of, if not the most overrated and overpriced team in the NHL. That hasn’t changed one bit, as they continue to rank near the bottom of the league in every defensive metric there is and their offense isn’t much better. Just stay out of the box and the Caps become one of the more beatable teams in the NHL.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

FLORIDA - +146 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)

Columbus @ PHILADELPHIA
Columbus +107 over PHILADELPHIA

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +107 Bet365 +100 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +105

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The Philadelphia Flyers charmed life continued on Tuesday night when they beat the Canadiens in OT, 3-2. That ran the Flyers point streak to nine games with six of those going to extra time. The Flyers were down 2-1 to the Habs on Tuesday with 1:25 left before scoring a goal with the extra attacker on the ice. In the games that did not go into OT during this winning streak, the Flyers were the second best team on the ice against the Golden Knights in a 4-1 win and against the Habs in a 5-3 win. Philadelphia was badly outshot by Vegas, 39-18, they allowed the Rangers 40 shots on net but scored seven times on 37 shots and against Montreal in that 5-3 win, they lost the Corsi For % battle with the hsots on net being even at 28 each. We could seriously be discussing a team on an eight or nine-game losing streak instead of one of the hottest teams in the league in terms of points percentage over the past nine games. The good news is that it works to our advantage because results influence the line and while the Flyers are getting the points, the Jackets are in much better form.

Since January 14, a span of five weeks, Columbus ranks 8th in 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted Corsi For % while the Flyers rank 17th over that same span. The Jackets rank higher than the Flyers in both xGF and xGA over that same stretch. The loss of winger Wayne Simmonds will test the Flyers depth and we doubt it’ll hold up much longer. The Columbus Blue Jackets are suffering from nothing but bad luck. Its power play ranks dead last in the NHL at 14.3% while Philly’s PP ranks 5th at 21.6%. Several of the Jackets shooting percentage are lower than their career averages and many of them are significantly lower. We have outlined the extreme luck driven numbers in this sport constantly. Power play percentages, penalty killing percentages, shooting percentages and save percentages are all a crap shoot in terms of rankings. Nobody can predict a puck bouncing off two legs and finding the back of the net on a shot from the point. Nobody can predict a soft goal or a goaltender getting cleanly beaten only to see the puck ring off the post. What we can predict with relative accuracy by paying attention to the under the hood numbers is which team will possess the puck more and create more scoring opportunities. In that regard, the Jackets are superior and that makes them very worthy of getting behind. The Flyers simply cannot keep racking up points at this pace when they are constantly betting outworked for the puck. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks

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Our Pick

Columbus +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

Minnesota @ NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY +100 over Minnesota

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +100 Bet365 -105 SportsInteraction +100 5DIMES +100

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The Devils went through a bit of a rough patch recently but they have their swag back and are being sold very short here because of the market perception on both these teams. These two are close in points so far with the Wild having accumulated 71 points in 59 games while the Devils have racked up 70 points in 60 games. When the Devils played in Minnesota last month, the Wild closed as a -180 favorite, which is not an indication that the market trusts these two are even. Teams like Boston are a -180 over teams like Detroit or Buffalo, which is justified but the market’s perception of these is not. New Jersey is the superior team, especially when Minnesota has to travel but the price does not reflect that.

After losing four straight, the Devils have picked up eight out of a possible 10 points over their last five games with four wins and a loss. That loss occurred in their last game to Columbus but it was undeserving. The Devils took it to the Jackets, which not many teams have been able to do lately. New Jersey just keeps getting better. Taylor Hall has turned into a superstar. He’s that good. New Jersey's leading rookie scorer Nico Hischier is heating up and was named the NHL's First Star of the Week for the week ending Feb. 18. He has four goals and three assists in his last five games. Devils' blueliner and 2017 Hobey Baker Award winner, Will Butcher, leads or is among the league leaders in multiple rookie and league-wide offensive categories. Over the past five weeks during 5v5 play the Devils rank 5th in the NHL in xGF/60 while the Wild rank 17th, the Devils rank 11th in Corsi For % while the Wild rank 26th and the Devils rank 5th in Corsi Against Per 60 while the Wild rank 23rd. Those are some key metrics but there are plenty others in which the Devils hold a significant edge. Finally, Minnesota’s metrics are even worse on the road. In fact, they drop to 27th or worse in several key metrics when they hit the road, which makes the Wild one of the NHL’s worst performing teams on the road.

We should note that Eddie Lack is in goal for New Jersey, which deflates the Devils value in the market for sure and we understand that. However, Lack was sensational in his last start against Tampa Bay. Lack set new career-highs in both saves (48) and shots-against (51) during his first-ever win for NJ, in his second start. That’s one game but perhaps a change in scenery was needed, as Lack was very good in Vancouver before his awful years in Carolina. At the end of the day, Minnesota CANNOT be favored in New Jersey.Detroit on the Red Wings best day and again, the Red Wings are not close to being good enough to be priced in this range. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks

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Our Pick

NEW JERSEY +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Buffalo @ DETROIT
Buffalo +137 over DETROIT

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +137 Bet 365 +135 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +135

Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

7:35 PM EST. OT included. The Red Wings are having a nice year. They have won several games as a high price pooch and they still have some high quality players but what they don’t have is the talent or numbers to be favored in this range against any team in the NHL. At best, the Red Wings are a 50/50 proposition to win in their own barn. In fact, Detroit is 12-13-7 at home while the Sabres have a better road record than they do at home.  

We’re not going to get into a lot of the metrics here because these two are close together in the rankings in so many of them. Detroit has been the luckier of the two teams but in no way are the Red Wings performances superior. Detroit is a weak defensive team with an incredibly high shooting percentage over the past five weeks.

Robin Lehner will be back in net for the Sabres after missing their game against Washington on Monday to rest a lower-body injury. Since joining the Sabres, Lehner is 3-2-1 with a .953 save percentage and a 1.65 goals-against average against the Red Wings. The only other change to the Buffalo lineup will be on defense, where Victor Antipin is expected to replace Justin Falk after sitting as a healthy scratch on Monday. Antipin has collected assists in each of his two games against the Red Wings. Jimmy Howard will get the start in net for the Red Wings, who will be without All-Star defenseman Mike Green for the fourth-straight game due to an upper-body injury.

Buffalo has lost three straight for the umpteenth time this season so the market expects them to lose. We don’t. The Sabres last three losses were to Washington, Los Angeles and Ottawa and they were the better team against the Caps and Kings. Prior to that, the Sabres beat Tampa and won in Boston. Just before the All-Star break, the Sabres won three straight in Calgary Edmonton and Vancouver. If we lose this bet, so be it. We can live with it because we know we’re going with the best of it. Buffalo can beat Detroit on the Red Wings best day and again, the Red Wings are not close to being good enough to be priced in this range. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks

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Our Pick

Buffalo +137 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.74)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days22290.00-5.64
Season to Date1261490.00+11.53
Sports Interaction