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Dallas @ N.Y. ISLANDERS
Dallas +109 over N.Y. ISLANDERS

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +109 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +108

Posted at 1:10 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The Islanders are coming off a 3-1 victory over the red-hot Capitals to run their home record to a league best 9-1-2. That victory over the Caps snapped a three-game losing streak but the win over Washington has resonated in the market more than that recent three-game slide. The Islanders lost the Corsi For% battle against Washington (it was close) but they have now lost the Corsi For % during five-on-five play in four of its last six games. In score and venue adjusted Corsi For % over the past month (from Nov. 11 to the present), the Isles rank 20th out of 31 teams. The Islanders are proficient at scoring goals, as their 108 scored thus far is the second most in the entire league behind the Bolts. However, they’ve also allowed 100 goals against and only five teams are worse. That tells us that in order to keep winning, the Islanders are going to have to keep scoring. It means that their shooting percentage will have to remain high and while that’s not impossible, it’s also not very likely. Again, this is a weak defense with shaky goaltending that allows far too many quality scoring chances against. Analytically well below average, the Islanders are a much bigger risk than this market perceives and until there is an adjustment, the Islanders will remain high on our fade radar.

We’re not sure this market understands how good the Stars are and how much they have improved over the last month. Remember, Dallas brought in new coaches to start the season so there was an adjustment period that is now over. The players have bought into Ken Hitchcock’s system and now they’re thriving in it. Over the past month, Dallas ranks second in score and venue adjusted Corsi For % and they rank fourth in Corsi Against over that same span. Not only are they thriving offensively, but they’re thriving defensively as well. The Stars are coming off one of this year’s most misleading scores when they went into Madison Square Gardens on Monday and defeated the Rangers 2-1 in a shootout. They toyed with the Rags for 60 minutes, held a remarkable 71.29   score and venue adjusted Corsi For edge and also held a 32-8 shots on net advantage at one point. Every leap year, Andrej Pavelec comes up with a game for the ages and that was it. The score should have been about 6-0 or worse. That was a result, which is another strong example of why we don’t put emphasis on results like most of the market does. In that regard, pay no attention to Dallas losing three of its last four games and needing a shootout to dispose of the Rags. You won’t find a team in the NHL that is playing at a higher level or better than these Stars at the current moment, which makes them one of the best, if not the best underdog to get behind right now. Hammer away.  

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks

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Our Pick

Dallas +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)

Nashville @ VANCOUVER
VANCOUVER +120 over Nashville

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +120 Bet365 +120 SportsInteraction +135 5DIMES +120

Posted at 1:10 PM EST.

10:05 PM EST. OT included. The Preds are 19-7-4. They are also 7-1-2 over their past 10 games and they have also picked up seven out of a possible eight points over their last four games. Everything is coming up aces for this team right now but we’ll once again take the position that they are the luckiest team in the NHL that is not close to playing as good as their record suggests. The Predators are dominating nobody. Over their past 15 games, their score and venue adjusted Corsi For percentages read like this:

50.66%

46.32

46.91

50.81

45.90

45.92

55.78

51.34

52.54

47.58

51.88

50.62               

46.05   

38.11

50.42

When the Preds have won the Corsi For battle, which is half the time, it has been by the slimmest of margins or barely above 50% in most games. They are not getting outplayed but most of their games have been damn close, which brings the next number into perspective. That would be the luck-driven PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) ranking, where the Preds rank fifth over that span. The Preds rank second in the league in PP % and seventh in the league in penalty killing. PDO + penalty killing + power-play are all working in Nashville’s favor to create the illusion that this is one of the best teams in the NHL. They’re not. Nashville should be a fringe playoff team at best. Now take away its best center in Ryan Johansen and it leaves a bigger hole in that average lineup but all anyone wants to talk about is the Canucks injury to Bo Horvat.

Yeah, that injury hurts. So, too, does the injury to Sven Baertschi but Vancouver has proven to be resilient and feisty as hell all season long and this changes nothing. It changes their lineup but we can live with the Sedin’s getting more ice time. Besides, the analytics suggest that they have not suffered much at all in a small sample size without Horvat. Don’t get us wrong, as the Canucks are absolutely better with Horvat in the lineup and to think or suggest otherwise would be foolish. However, they are still playing well, despite what the results say. Vancouver has dropped three straight to Philadelphia, Calgary and Winnipeg respectively but they were the better team in two of those games but goaltending that was the difference. The Preds opened as a -115 to a -120 choice but the market has hammered the favorite since to bring it up to its current price. This wager is more about fading the Preds than it is backing the Canucks although we have no problem backing Vancouver whatsoever, as it is a rare day when the Canucks do not give us our money’s worth in effort alone.     

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks

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Our Pick

VANCOUVER +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday110.00+0.18
Last 30 Days29270.00+20.00
Season to Date66800.00+5.25
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