Posted on April 22 prior to Game 2. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +202 BET365  +205 Sportsinteraction   +200 888Sport  +205

Toronto +205 to Win Series

The sky is falling in Hogtown after the Maple Leafs lost Game 1 in Boston, and so now it’s time to blow up the whole damn thing. Fire Brad Treliving, fire Sheldon Keefe, and trade everyone not named Auston Matthews; the Leafs are toast. We’ve heard and read it all since the final buzzer sounded on Saturday night, just like we heard it all last year after Toronto lost Game 1 to Tampa Bay. We get it; it’s hard to be a Leafs fan, but the “Chicken Little” hot takes every time this team faces a setback, either minor or major, are exhausting.

The 5-1 final on Saturday night looks bad on paper, but there are moments in games that can change everything, and for the Maple Leafs, that moment came down 1-0 in the second period when 69-goal man Matthews rang a shot off the crossbar. If it had hit the back of the net, it would have put Toronto right back in it and potentially tamed the boisterous Boston crowd. Instead, the puck would be in the back of the Maple Leaf net in what felt like a blink of an eye, and it was 2-0 Boston. After that, the Leafs took a couple of bad penalties that led to a pair of Jake DeBrusk power-play makers, and it was 4-0 B’s after 40. Each side would pot tallies in the third; however, the Leafs did have life over that final 20, outshooting Boston 12-3 in the final frame and 36-to-24 overall.

Going back to the last time they met in the playoffs, the Bruins have now beaten the Maple Leafs eight games in a row, which sounds impressive and even a bit daunting, but that is just another useless talking point for the pundits. However, it’s worth mentioning because those pundits influence the market. The reason the B’s won so lopsidedly was not because they have the Leafs’ “number” or because they were in their heads; it’s because Jeremy Swayman was way better than Ilya Samsonov between the pipes. Look, it’s not like the Leafs didn’t have their chances, as Swayman had to make a bunch of second-chance saves, and he kept his team in the game when really they were not playing that well in their own end.

The big blue elephant in the room is, of course, the status of William Nylander, who missed only his second game with an injury since 2016 when he was scratched with an undisclosed ailment in advance of Game 1. Nylander had not practiced on Friday, but he did return to the ice yesterday, although reports are not all that promising. Nylander was said by defenseman Jake McCabe to be in “good spirits,” but the former was seen laboring between drills and struggling to hit the net when working on his patient one-timer. At the time of this posting, there has been no official report on Nylander and his status for tonight, but we’re acting under the assumption that he will likely not play, and even if he does, he won’t be close to 100%. The pundits will use that absence as fodder to fade the Maple Leafs, as they are missing a key cog of their machine, but that injury information is not privileged, and it has been factored into the line. Despite that, the market has taken a stand in this game, and it cannot fathom that the Maple Leafs could compete here after getting their bums spanked in Game 1.

One could wager on the Leafs to win tonight at +115 or thereabouts, but instead, we are going to back the Maple Leafs to win the series at better than 2-1 odds. If the Leafs win tonight, they are going to be favored as they return home to Toronto, giving us tremendous value on this ticket. Even if Toronto doesn’t win tonight, we’ll still be alive with this wager, even if the swim back might be a little tougher.

Sherwood

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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +202 BET365  +205 Sportsinteraction   +200 888Sport  +205

N.Y. Islanders +205 over Carolina

7:37 PM EST. OT included. Freddie Andersen finally looked like the all-world goaltender the Hurricanes had hoped for when they signed him in the summer of 2021 in Game 1, as he stole the show with a 33-save performance. The Hurricanes would go on to win the opener, 3-1, but they did not look the part of a Stanley Cup favorite, as the Islanders beat them at their own game, dominating the puck-possession numbers and generating more scoring chances, but failing to put up the offense necessary to win that game. Carolina head coach Rod Brind'Amour made a worthwhile observation in the aftermath of his team’s victory, saying, "We weren't great, that's for sure. New York is a perfect example of a team that's been playing playoff hockey for a month against a team that hasn't.”

To that end, the Islanders have been in “playoff mode” for weeks as they fought tooth and nail to finish third in the Metropolitan, and they were one of the hottest teams down the stretch, picking up points in nine straight games, going 8-0-1 to close out the year. The Islanders are that team that got “hot at the right time,” and although they did not get the result they wanted, they did not look out of place versus the mighty Hurricanes.

It is impossible to predict the outcome of these games, and with the results in hockey being more luck-driven than the other four majors, the Islanders could be the better team on the ice tonight again and lose this game. That’s frustrating, no doubt, but at the inflated price the Isles are being offered up at today, there is tremendous value to be had on them. Even if the Isles are not the better team, there is a reason the ‘Canes are perennial contenders that have not made it over the hump in their current form, and that is because of weak and inconsistent goaltending. In short, Andersen is just as capable of a gem as he is a stinker, and we just witnessed a gem. The Islanders are playing good hockey right now and they can absolutely win this game. Overlay.

Sherwood

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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +127 BET365  +120 Sportsinteraction   +115 888Sport  +120

Vegas +127 over Dallas

9:37 PM EST. OT included. The Golden Knights locked down a Wild Card spot after a season full of ups and downs. The defending Stanley Cup champions were one of the hottest teams out of the gate, winning 11 of their first 12 games, while picking up a point in the only game they lost in all of October. The Golden Knights would then labor through injuries and a dry spell, winning just two games between February 12 and March 7. The two biggest names the Golden Knights were missing down the stretch were captain Mark Stone and defenseman Alex Pietrangelo; however, both were back at practice in advance of Game 1 and both will play tonight.

The Golden Knights returned 20 players from their Stanley Cup-winning team last season, and they also added some quality assets at the trade deadline in forwards Thomas Hertl and Anthony Mantha, as well as defenseman Noah Hanifin. Mix in the reinforcements in Stone and Pietrangelo, and all of a sudden the Golden Knights look like one of the more dangerous clubs we’ve seen in the Wild Card era. Man for man, there is an argument to be made that Vegas is better than Dallas.

The prevailing storyline here is that the Stars, after being knocked out by the Knights in the playoffs last season and losing all three games to Vegas during the regular season, are out for “revenge” here. This gives us a great opportunity to remind anyone who's been here before and those who may be new, that the “revenge” angle is one of the most overused, overhyped, and overrated angles touted by the talking heads. When you hear it, do not buy in, but rather take note and use it to your advantage, as those pundits have an influence in the market, and the market eats up the “revenge” angle like it’s candy.

The Stars are the top seed in the West, and yet they were rewarded with a brutal draw here, as the Golden Knights are just one of those teams that appear to have their number. Furthermore, as the #1 seed in the conference, all the pressure is on Dallas to not only make a deep playoff run but win the Stanley Cup. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are playing with house money with little to lose and a cup already in the bag. As an underdog, the Knights are absolutely worthy of a play.

Sherwood

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