Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -105 BET365  -110 Sportsinteraction  -110 888Sport  -110

Chicago -103 over Boston

7:10 PM EST. Fun matchup at Fenway this weekend with two historical clubs that rarely see one another. Cubbies/BoxSox is as good as it gets early in the baseball season with a great pitching matchup to get it started.

Kutter Crawford (RHP - BOS) has been impressive in his five starts, where he’s allowed two earned runs over 27.1 innings pitched with 30 strikeouts. Still, his luck factors are working heavily in his favor with a strand rate of 90% and a BABIP of .238. A closer look shows that his skills aren't THAT great, as xERA of 3.88 confirms; he’s also always had an extreme fly-ball tilt, which makes him HR vulnerable. Last year, Crawford had a low innings pitched total, as he rarely gets 20 hitters/game and never made it past the sixth. His surface numbers are outstanding and while he’s been good, he’s not THIS good and therefore his surface numbers have him overpriced today.

Shota Imanaga (LHP - CHC) has been outstanding and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Red Sox have never seen him before. Over four starts, Imanga has allowed two earned runs with 21 strikeouts in 21.1 innings pitched. Imanaga has an impressive 23.2% K-BB with a 13.9% swing and miss rate. He stifles opposing hitters. Today, he takes on a Red Sox team that has struggled versus LHP; they strike out 30.3% of the time while hitting .229. His strikeout rating is tops on the board today.

Finally, the Cubbies are feeling it with a 16-9 record, three wins in a row and seven wins in their last 10. Boston is a bit banged up and not feeling nearly as good as the visitor. In what is essentially a pick ‘em, we strongly suggest Chicago’s chances of winning are greater than 50%.

Sherwood

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