Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +127 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +125   888Sport +125

New Jersey +127 over Toronto

7:37 PM EST. OT included. With 12 games to play, we find the Maple Leafs at a crossroads, as they are hard-pressed to improve their standing as the third-placed team in the Atlantic Division. Toronto sits eight points back of Boston for second; however, the Buds have the Lightning nipping at their heels for fourth, but regardless of how those two teams finish, either third in their division or the top Wild Card, they’ll be playing on the road at either Boston, Florida, the Rangers, or Carolina with those top four teams all still scrambling for first place in their divisions. Finishing third in the Atlantic is like winning an ugly dog contest.

The Leafs have picked up points in three of their last five games, with their 6-3 win over Connor McDavid and the Oilers on Saturday night being the highest profile of those games, as it was played on Hockey Night in Canada in front of a national audience. The Leafs would be outshot 39-to-29 in that game, and they followed that performance up with a 2-1 loss in Carolina on Sunday. The ‘Canes outshot the Leafs in that one, 43-to-33.

Prior to that one-goal performance, the Leafs had been given credit for scoring at least three goals in four straight, with their six-goal performance versus Edmonton and a seven-goal outburst versus Washington being the highlights, but the reality is, the Leafs are a top-heavy team when it comes to scoring, and if the big boys don’t carry the load, there’s a good chance it’s going to be a long night at the office. The four top scorers on the Leafs, Auston Matthews (58), William Nylander (39), Mitch Marner (25), and John Tavares have potted 145 of their team’s 253 tallies. That’s 57% of the Maple Leafs' output if you are keeping track at home. A big reason the Maple Leafs were able to beat the Oilers was that Bobby McMann and Pontus Holmberg both scored twice, but getting that kind of secondary scoring is the exception and not the norm.

The Devils are not our target here, but they are playing better hockey of late, having won three of four, and scoring at least four goals while giving up two or fewer in those three wins. The Devils are still in the Wild Card hunt with 74 points, sitting five points back of Washington, but they do have some work to do, and they also have both the Islanders (75 pts) and Detroit (79 pts) to leapfrog. That said, the Devils catch the Leafs in a bit of a scheduling pickle, as Toronto has traveled after eight straight games going back to March 6 when they went from Hogtown to Boston, to Montreal, Philadelphia, and back to Toronto, back to Philly, over to Washington, up to Toronto, down to Carolina, and then back home for this one tonight. The Leafs already appeared to be running out of gas versus the Oilers and Hurricanes, and if they are fully refueled here, so be it, the Devils are still a tough out, and worthy of wager as an underdog in this spot.

Sherwood

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