Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:40 PM EST.
7:30 PM EST. Regulation only. The Senators rank dead last in the NHL in 5v5 Score and Adjusted Corsi For % over the past 15 games. That puts them lower than the Rangers, who are getting blown out every night. The Sens have been under siege all season long and it has taken a big toll, as playing without the puck is tiring. The Sens total Corsi Against per 60 over their last 10 games is 72.64, which is beyond putrid. For reference, the Bruins’ Corsi Against per 60 over that same span is 43.47. Ottawa’s goaltending has been weak and it’s offensive and defensive metrics rank dead last or damn close to it in every single category. If the Senators win here, it’ll all be luck driven, just like Toronto’s win over Nashville last night but the difference is the Maple Leafs are a very good team while the Senators are a train wreck.
Ryan Ellis back on the Preds blue-line makes a massive difference. Dude is a stud and one of the best in the business that logs 23 minutes a game and controls a lot of what happens out there. It is no coincidence that since his return 14 games ago, the Predators analytics numbers have soared. Since Ellis’ return, Nashville ranks second in 5v5 Score and Adjusted Corsi Against per 60 minutes and they rank 7th in Corsi For % over that same span. When Ellis was out, Nashville’s Corsi’s For and Against numbers were below league average. The Preds went into Toronto last night and deserved better than a 3-2 OT loss, as they dominated from the second period on. With Ellis, Nashville is so much better. Since Jan. 1, no team in the Western Conference has a better points percentage than the Predators (.769), who have picked up 22 points in 14 games since Ellis retuned. Furthermore, Kyle Turris will return to Ottawa tonight, which makes it a huge game for him and in turn, a huge game for his teammates, who want to play their best in support of Turris, who they have embraced since day one and who has made a world of difference. Turris is not the only player Preds GM David Poile has stolen, as he also traded Martin Erat for Filip Forsberg and Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. In any case, the Preds stock is about to go through the roof when Forsberg returns but for this one game and one that has meaning in the Preds locker room, Nashville should do to the Sens what the Bruins did to the Rangers last night.
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Nashville -½ +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)