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Posted at 1:10 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The Islanders are coming off a 3-1 victory over the red-hot Capitals to run their home record to a league best 9-1-2. That victory over the Caps snapped a three-game losing streak but the win over Washington has resonated in the market more than that recent three-game slide. The Islanders lost the Corsi For% battle against Washington (it was close) but they have now lost the Corsi For % during five-on-five play in four of its last six games. In score and venue adjusted Corsi For % over the past month (from Nov. 11 to the present), the Isles rank 20th out of 31 teams. The Islanders are proficient at scoring goals, as their 108 scored thus far is the second most in the entire league behind the Bolts. However, they’ve also allowed 100 goals against and only five teams are worse. That tells us that in order to keep winning, the Islanders are going to have to keep scoring. It means that their shooting percentage will have to remain high and while that’s not impossible, it’s also not very likely. Again, this is a weak defense with shaky goaltending that allows far too many quality scoring chances against. Analytically well below average, the Islanders are a much bigger risk than this market perceives and until there is an adjustment, the Islanders will remain high on our fade radar.

We’re not sure this market understands how good the Stars are and how much they have improved over the last month. Remember, Dallas brought in new coaches to start the season so there was an adjustment period that is now over. The players have bought into Ken Hitchcock’s system and now they’re thriving in it. Over the past month, Dallas ranks second in score and venue adjusted Corsi For % and they rank fourth in Corsi Against over that same span. Not only are they thriving offensively, but they’re thriving defensively as well. The Stars are coming off one of this year’s most misleading scores when they went into Madison Square Gardens on Monday and defeated the Rangers 2-1 in a shootout. They toyed with the Rags for 60 minutes, held a remarkable 71.29   score and venue adjusted Corsi For edge and also held a 32-8 shots on net advantage at one point. Every leap year, Andrej Pavelec comes up with a game for the ages and that was it. The score should have been about 6-0 or worse. That was a result, which is another strong example of why we don’t put emphasis on results like most of the market does. In that regard, pay no attention to Dallas losing three of its last four games and needing a shootout to dispose of the Rags. You won’t find a team in the NHL that is playing at a higher level or better than these Stars at the current moment, which makes them one of the best, if not the best underdog to get behind right now. Hammer away.  

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