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Posted at 1:25 PM EST.

7:05 PM EST. OT included. The beautiful thing about betting on sports is that the market is heavily influenced by luck-driven results and such is the case with these two teams. The Islanders are 8-5-1 while the Oilers are 4-8-1, thus creating this false favorite. There are things to like about the Islanders, mainly their ability to put the puck in the net but just like the Maple Leafs cooled off, so, too, will the New York Islanders.

PDO, called SPSV% (shooting % - save %) by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage. PDO is measured at even strength and based on the theory that most teams will ultimately regress toward a sum of 100, is often viewed as a proxy for how lucky a team is or isn’t. In that regard, the Islanders PDO ranks 5th in the NHL while the Oilers PDO ranks 28th. The Islanders 54 goals scored in 14 games is the second highest goals per game average in the NHL behind Tampa Bay. The point is that all those pucks going in is not sustainable and therefore regression in goals scored is inevitable. The Islanders are not going to continue to win 4-3 and 5-4 games.

By contrast, Edmonton is averaging 2.3 goals per game on 37.8 shots per game. That’s bad luck and is in line for a correction to the good. That correction is very much in line to take place here against Thomas Greiss, tonight’s starter for the Isles. In high danger scoring chances against, Greiss’ save percentage is 66.67, which is the fourth worst mark in the league ahead of only Chad Johnson, Maxime Legace and Louis Dominigue. The Oilers rank second in the NHL in high danger scoring chances for so if all things are equal, Greiss may be in for a long night. The Oilers continue to be one of the best possession teams in the league that continue to create at a high level. We also like that the Oilers get a chance to get out of Edmonton and away from all the media scrutiny there after an unsuccessful 2-3, five-game homestand. The Oil outshot every opponent on said homestand but lost to Washington, Edmonton and most recently, Detroit on Sunday night. The Oilers now embark on a four-game trip that begins here and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if they swept the road trip. They’re playing well enough to do so, thus, we’ll put that to the test right here.

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