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Posted at 11:45 AM EST.

9:05 PM EST. OT included. We have no idea which team is going to win here but what we do know is that the Flames cannot be trusted in this price range. The Flames’ stock is a bit too high right now after back-to-back wins over Pittsburgh and Washington but against the Pens, Calgary was the undeserving winner after allowing 44 shots on net and 29 scoring chances against. Calgary has played 13 games thus far and four of its last five games have been decided by one goal. Six of their last seven games have been decided by two or less. The Flames have only won two games this year by three or more goals, which tells us that the opposition is in almost every game against them with a chance to win it. Analytically speaking, the Flames do have an edge here and it’s likely one of the reasons why the Devils taking back such a big price. Another reason is that this market does not believe that the Devils strong start (9-3) is sustainable, which it is probably not but that’s a story for another time. There are other reasons why Calgary is priced so high.  

The Devils are coming off a 6-3 loss to Edmonton. They’ll also rest Cory Schneider here in favor of Keith Kinkaid but the Devils are 3-1 in Kinkaid’s start and he’s proven before that he’s a capable backup. Although the Devils Corsi against numbers are not great, they do not allow many high danger scoring chances, which suggests they are keeping the opposition on the perimeter. New Jersey ranks 7th in high danger scoring chances against and Calgary ranks just below them in 8th. The point is that this game looks more like a coin toss than it does a one-sided affair like the price suggests. The Devils have several players playing at a high level and they are also burying a lot of pucks right now while Calgary is struggling to score. Again, those are luck based numbers (pucks going in) but when the pucks aren’t going in, players get more frustrated and are gripping their sticks a little bit tighter. At the end of the day, this game is not priced correctly and we therefore must continue to play the value.    

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