Montreal @ WINNIPEG
Montreal +107 over WINNIPEG

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +107 Bet365 +105 SportsInteraction +105 5DIMES +103

Posted at 12:30 PM EST.

7:00 PM EST. Everything in hockey comes down to goaltending and the Jets are the biggest beneficiary of that fact so far this season. After signing free agent Steve Mason in the offseason to a two year deal for $8 million, the veteran was penned into the starting gig based on salary alone. After a 0-3 start to his Jets career, Mason is now riding the pine and we give Winnipeg credit for making the tough call to bench a high priced player but Connor Hellebuyck is by far the better option in net. The Jets have gone 7-0-1 with the young netminder and have skyrocketed up the power rankings by landing in third place this week on the NHL Network. The panel gushed all over Winnipeg and about how they have the best top six in the league, a formidable backend with the addition of a quality 'tender being the cherry on top. We’re not sure what team these guys are watching. If not for Hellebuyck, the Jets would be floundering near the bottom of the standings, just as they are in the analytics.   Winnipeg is the worst puck possession team in the NHL with a Corsi For% of just 44.7. The Jets have also been on the fortunate end of the bounces, as their a top five PDO (Save % + Shooting %) team at 102.8. A correction is coming and Hellebuyck’s .938 save percentage is a prime target. Another reason for the correction besides their poor puck possession stats is the fact the Jets spend way too much time in their own end and are second only behind the Devils in defensive zone starts at 55.5%. Winnipeg’s stock is high but its bubble is about to burst.

Imagine if the Canadiens had Connor Hellebuyck in net. They’d be at the top of the standings and wouldn’t have to deal with the negative press that comes their way on a daily basis. Now the Habs are forced to use Al Montoya after their $10-million dollar man, Carey Price, landed on the IR. Unlike the Jets, the Canadiens are playing tremendous hockey right now but Price has let them down. Montreal is second in puck possession, only behind the Penguins and it has been most unlucky by ranking 31st in PDO. We saw a glimmer of hope in an 8-3 win against the Sens last week when the Habs sent backup Al Montoya to the crease. Montreal has also been criticized for its weak power play (28th) but as with their analytics, an adjustment should be on the way. Every team basically has the same approach to the man advantage and with the median this year being about 18%, the Habs 13.5% success rate should only improve. We play Montreal on Thursday against the Wild and lost. We’ll continue to play them because the results do not match the strong performances and a correction in its won/loss record is forthcoming.

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Our Pick

Montreal +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

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Florida -105 over Tampa Bay
Boston -106 over Toronto
Colorado +135 over Winnipeg
Toronto +205 over Boston