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Posted at 11:30 AM EST. 

OT included. We had the Senators in Game 1 and we also have them in the series but we have to try and milk as much out of these ludicrous prices as possible. If we lose so be it but we’re not going to pass up the opportunity.

Of course Pittsburgh can win here. Only a fool would think otherwise. The Pens’ backs are to the wall and they’re a team that can never ever be counted out. The Pens were frustrated somewhat by Ottawa’s 1-3-1 trap system in Game 1 but Pittsburgh will make adjustments like they always do and will have a few tricks of their own up their sleeve like they always do too. However, we’re sticking to our guns here in suggesting that Pittsburgh is highly flawed defensively and nothing has changed. The giveaways continue to pile up and Marc Andre Fleury is not likely going to bail them out every time. While the Penguins are more than capable of burying four or five pucks, they are not capable of preventing the high quality scoring chances that they give up every single game. That’s a big problem that the market continues to overlook.

Pittsburgh had plenty of opportunities to take Game 1 Saturday night thanks to five power plays, including four in the first period. The Sens played short-handed for eight of the first 20 minutes and they also played two men short for a portion of those eight minutes. Those are exhausting minutes in the first period but the Sens endured and overall played a very strong game. With a little more discipline, Ottawa night even be better in Game 2. At the end of the day, however, it’s still all about value.

There has been something like 26 OT games so far in these playoffs. Every single OT game is decided by luck with no exceptions. Every single one-goal game in hockey is decided by nothing but pure luck. Ottawa has won its fair share of OT games this playoff season and so has Pittsburgh. Had they not, they would both be watching from the rails. The point is that the games are so close and therefore Ottawa’s chances of winning are just as good as Pittsburgh’s. The Senators keep on winning games and the market refuses to give them credit. Pittsburgh was not the superior team in Game 1 and the longer they play, the better it is for the opposition because they’re a banged up team whose tank is running lower with each passing game. Nobody knows how this game is going to go but we can assure you that all the value here is on the visitor. Ottawa is a legit threat that did not look a bit out of place in Game 1 as a 2-1 pooch and they surely won’t look out of place here.     

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