Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O28½ -101 BET365 028½ -115 Sportsinteraction O28½ -110

L.A. Lakers 1Q TT over 28½ 

Best Odds: -101 at Pinnacle

10:10 PM EST. The Lakers would be 2-0 right now if the first two games of their series against the Nuggets ended after two quarters, but that's not how this basketball thing works. We could say it was the elevation in Denver or the lack of youth on LAL's roster, but they fade away and have been outright dominated in the second half of their first two matchups. Anthony Davis was visibly lethargic at the end of game two after an exceptional first three quarters, entering the final period with 32 points and 10 rebounds. He finished with 32 points and 11 rebounds. LeBron James, despite being the oldest current player in the NBA, looked like he had more energy than anyone at the end of their last affair, but it wasn't enough. On top of that, Taurean Prince is the only Lakers' bench player to score a single point so far through two games. Coach Darvin Ham knows something must change.

But in the first two quarters, nothing really has to change. The Lakers have been very proficient in the first half, scoring 60 in the first game and 59 in the second, winning in both occasions. Now down 0-2 and worried that Denver could sweep them 4-0 for the second season in a row, this is the ultimate motivational spot for the home team, an angle that every sports bettor in the world is looking at tonight. That's why we're avoiding it, at least full-game and in the first half. Oddsmakers know that bettors expect the Lakers to win early, thus the inflated lines on LeBron's squad in the first half (-2½ at most books) and first quarter (-1½ at most books). So, we'll go with a different angle instead.

The Lakers run at their fastest tempo (103.76), their offense is more efficient, and their true shooting percentages skyrocket in the first quarter at home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been slow starters, and they seem content to go at the pace and output of their opponent in the first 12 minutes. LAL has produced 62 points in the first two opening quarters so far, a mark they accomplished in hostile territory and over 6,000 feet above sea level. With a better game plan and one of the best players to ever compete in the NBA in a bad mood, what do you think will happen tonight?

We're willing to bet that they'll keep putting up plenty of points. The Denver Nuggets are the better team, we have little doubt about that, and we want nothing to do with any spreads in tonight's contest because of it. But the Lakers can score at will in front of their home fans, using their big bodied starters to barrel down the floor for easy buckets to take their enemy off their game. They've already done it exceptionally well on the road. Perhaps the only angle we can really trust on a team as volatile as the Lakers, we'll go with a productive first quarter above all other options.

Farley

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