Posted at 3:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U206½ -104 BET365 U206½ -110 Sportsinteraction U206½ -110 888Sport U206½ -110

Chicago/Miami under 206½

Best Odds: -104 at Pinnacle

7:10 PM EST. When the Heat and Bulls need a win, they rely on one side of the court: defense. Miami will be without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier tonight, a combination that averages over 40 ppg. In a must-win elimination game, their offense will be missed, but they still have plenty to offer on defense. Bam Adebayo will lead a physical Heat resistance that gets up for these matchups, like we've seen so many times before, and it almost doesn't matter who's playing. "Heat Culture" is a real thing and Erik Spoelstra, unquestionably one of the NBA's best coaches, is damn-near genius at niche-preparation for opposing offenses in these scenarios. But oddsmakers are anticipating that Miami will turn up the heat defensively, pun intended. We like a low-scoring game even more because of how similar these two squads are, a recipe that could breed a historically low-scoring battle considering what's at stake.

Look at TeamRankings or any stat site and you'll find that the Bulls and Heat are mirror images of each other. They're both top-3 in paint points allowed and top 6 in fastbreak points allowed, two factors that mean neither defense will permit easy buckets. They're also ranked in the bottom-third in nearly every offensive category. Neither program is in the top-20 in two-point shooting percentage, and both struggle in completing fastbreak buckets. They both prefer to slow the game down, which is another similarity (Miami is 29th, Chicago is 28th in tempo), and that means both rosters can settle in and play the brand of defense their most comfortable in, locked in and waiting on the other side of half-court. 

Coby White had the game of his life against the Hawks, dropping 42 points against an Atlanta defense that looked lost and porous like it has so many times this season. White and the Bulls won't have the same success in South Beach. Alex Caruso will likely play but he's banged up, Nikola Vucevic often shies away from physicality and won't be afforded any easy shots (he only averages17 ppg against Adebayo), and while DeMar DeRozan will get his, he only averaged 22 points and 4 assists in his last four contests against Miami. The Heat always show grit in situations like this and we expect them to set a very aggressive tone early. Combine that with the natural nerves and tension of an elimination game, and we can only love one side of this total.

Farley

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