Posted at 8:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -4½ -109 BET365 -5 -110 Sportsinteraction -4½ -110 888Sport -4½ -117

Orlando -4½ over Milwaukee

Best Odds: -109 at Pinnacle

1:10 PM EST. On one hand it might seem somewhat silly that the Magic are favored against the "mighty" Bucks, but that moniker doesn't really hold true these days, does it? Milwaukee is without Giannis until the playoffs begin and in their last game, weren't all that interested in winning. OKC controlled the entire contest, winning by margin 125-107. The truth is, Milwaukee has been trying to cough up the #2 seed for the better part of three weeks. They've lost 7 of their last 10 games, but losses from other Eastern Conference contenders and a few tiebreakers still have the Bucks in the 2 spot. And yet, here we are staring at the board and the Bucks are 5-point underdogs in another contest where they could officially lock in their posiiton. Why could that be?

We don't think the Bucks want to be the #2 seed. Does anyone? If the standings remain the same after Sunday, the 76ers would be the 2-seed's opponent, a team that's surging with reigning MVP Joel Embiid back in their lineup. Philly has won 7 games in a row, the best in the association leading into the playoffs. Without Embiid their core improved, and now Philly is presenting as a very dangerous matchup for any outfit with their big-man returned. The Bucks are staring at an intimidating future in that case, with a beaten up Giannis, and shuttering at the thought of it. Less experienced teams like the Magic, Pacers, and Cavs are better matchups for Milwaukee. And how much is a win worth if one of your stars gets injured before the postseason?  Oddsmakers aren't making Orlando a 5-point favorite just because Giannis is out.

And for Orlando, it sets up quite well. The theme of the Magic's season is that they stack up wins against lesser opponents, while almost always losing to the elites. It happened again in their last contest against Philly, their third straight loss. Orlando hasn't looked good in the final week of the season, but this is a perfect chance for them to grab a win in a game they care about far more than their opponent. And their opponent is considered an "elite," despite Milwaukee's poor play recently. Unbelievably, the Magic could still slip into the play-in tournament if they lost on Sunday, so in their mind there's only one pathway to make sure that doesn't happen. 

The ludicrous part of all this is - if Milwaukee won, there's a scenario where they could still avoid Philly since the 76ers would move up in the standings. In any case, if the Bucks were in stellar form maybe we wouldn't take this wager, but the reality is they haven't looked good for damn near a month. And maybe it's fake news that they care about Philly, but the oddsmakers are telling us they don't have faith in MIlwaukee, and neither do we.

Farley

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