Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle N/A BET365 +6 -110 Sportsinteraction +5½ -115 888Sport +6½ -115

Minnesota +6 over Denver

Best Odds: -110 at BET365

10:10 PM EST. There are many games on tonight's NBA slate but there's only one that feels like a "marquee" matchup. The Nuggets and Timberwolves, both members of the elite Northwest division, are neck and neck for the #1 seed in the West with only 3 games remaining. Minnesota leads the series 2-1 heading into tonight, and besides a strange first meeting where Denver couldn't score a bucket to save their lives (39.6% from the floor, credit to Minnesota's stingy defense for some of that), all 12 quarters have been intense, physical, closely fought battles. The winner of tonight's final regular season showdown will presumably earn the first spot in the Western Conference; Denver has two easy games left and while Minnesota has a tougher finish (vs. ATL, vs. PHX), they would own the tiebreaker against the Nuggets and would only need to win one more game if they were victorious tonight. In the truest sense, this is for all the (regular season) marbles on Wednesday.

And there's simply no way we can't bet on the Timberwolves at this number. Way to spoil the thesis, right? But there's plenty to explain.

Firstly and most obviously, the T-Wolves have played Denver better than any other program in the NBA this season. The reigning champs know they have a target on their back and that virtually every team will want to be at their best against them because of it, but their wars with the Wolves have felt different. Anthony Edwards is a big part of that. The 22-year old who many just call "Ant" continues to electrify audiences with his Jordan-like moxie and athletic ability. Averaging 26.3 ppg and shooting at a ridiculous 52% effective field goal rate in the clutch, Edwards is the clear leader and emotional spark plug for the Timberwolves when the going gets tough, despite his young age. In three games he's dropped 79 points on the Nuggets and led his team in scoring on all three occasions, hitting nearly half his shots (48%). At this juncture, not a single Nuggets' defender has slow him down.

Even better for tonight's pooch, Minnesota matches up better than most rosters versus Denver because of their size. They still miss Karl-Anthony Towns, who should be back for the playoffs, but Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, Kyle Anderson, and other big-bodied bruisers aren't afraid to bang in the front court with Jokic and his bodyguard, Aaron Gordon. In all three contests, we've plainly observed a version of Nikola Jokic that looks shaken up and out-of-rhythm in myriad moments, something not seen often from the two-time MVP (and arguably the league's best player). In two previous losses against Minny, Nikola shot just 22-47 (46.8%) from the floor, far below his average. "The Joker" is well-known for his efficiency (57.8% average this season), and yet the T-Wolves keep slowing him down.

We also love Minnesota's resolve. In their second game versus Denver, Minnesota came back from a 15-point first half deficit and ended up taking a small lead halfway through the fourth quarter. The Nuggets eventually won the game, but it came down to the very last possession and just a one-score disparity, 115-112. The T-Wolves dominated the next clash from start to finish, leading by as many as 26 points, alhough it's worth noting that Denver was without Jamal Murray in that recent loss. Murray is clearly Denver's #2, most evidenced many times in his clutch performances in the postseason, and at home behind a raucous crowd he'll add to the exceptionally complex puzzle that is the highly proficient Nuggets' offense. At the same time, Minnesota hasn't given us any reason to think they can't find a way to limit their output. After 79 games, the Timberwolves' defense is rated as the best unit among all 30 NBA teams, and it's their defense that flips games and overwhelms opposing offenses when they need to rally. We've seen Minnesota do it over and over again for 6 straight months. And in handicapping, consistency in large sample sizes is what we love!

Oddsmakers and market movers are convinced that Denver will win this game, and we won't argue that point. That is the more probable outcome - at home, losing 2/3 games against Minnesota so far, and with a clear path to the West's #1 seed once again - it makes sense. But the Nuggets cannot be this heavily favored. A 6-point disparity is a two to three possession lead. Over four quarters, Anthony Edwards and an extremely talented roster will be very difficult to hold down and surge ahead by margin. Like it or not, the reigning champions are one of the worst teams against the spread in the association (46.8%, 23rd), and it's because of their inability to keep a lead (they lead the NBA ATS in the first quarter, up +18.65 units this season). That's proven to be an issue against the diehard, relentless energy of the Minnesota Timberwolves, and we see it being a big problem again tonight. 

Farley

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