Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -4 -108 BET365 -4 -105 Sportsinteraction -3½ -115 888Sport -3½ -117

Miami -4 over Atlanta

Best Odds: -108 at Pinnacle

7:40 PM EST. Remember when we bet on the Heat on Sunday and they shit the bed against the Pacers? Yeah we're going right back to the well. Miami played well in the second half of their most recent contest, outscoring the Pacers 69-54, but Indiana took a commanding control early and ended up winning 117-115 after fending off a late push by the away team. That loss put Miami in an even worse position with just four games remaining, now in the 8th spot in the East.

Fortunately, the Heat have a very friendly ending stretch to their schedule. After tonight's game at Atlanta against a team that only recently found a better groove, the black and red will return to South Beach tomorrow to host the feisty Dallas Mavericks. That won't be an easy battle, but they end with two more home games against the downtrodden Raptors. The Heat's chance to surge and sit in the 7th or even the 6th spot as the regular season concludes is still possible. That is, as long as they win the rest of their games. We believe they'll win at least three out of four, starting tonight.

Firstly, at a base level, the Heat and Hawks are not on the same level, at least not according to our power ratings. We imagine most bettors worth their salt would agree. Miami's offense is capable of reaching a new level, we've seen that plenty in season's past, especially when the playoffs begin. Jimmy Butler and his crew can elevate their game, and it helps that Tyler Herro has returned to the lineup (13-26, 38 pts over 56 minutes in his first two games back). The Heat defense, a group that was top-2 over the last few weeks before they faced Indiana, is vastly superior to what Atlanta can bring to the table, although it's worth mentioning that the Hawks have been more physically imposing and better on defense since Trae Young left to get surgery on his injured finger. Regardless, the Hawks' defense has sunk to a unit that ranks in the bottom half of the league over their last week of play, a metric that probably reflects the challenges they're facing against better and more desperate programs. Their offense is even worse lately, ranked in the bottom-five in the same span. 

The real weakness of the Hawks is their dependence on Dejounte Murray. We've seen Murray put on some incredible displays over the last month, including two straight incomparable wins against the Boston Celtics. Murray has been mostly sensational since Young left the team, now looked at as their clear #1 scorer, but with every ying there's a yang. Without Murray scoring proficiently, the Hawks just aren't the same offense. Look at Murray's field goal percentages over the last month and you'll see a direct correlation. When Murray shoots well, the Hawks typically score more points and end up winning the game. When he doesn't, well, we're pretty sure you could finish that next sentence. In 9 losses since March 1, Murray's average hit rate was 37.8% from the field. In 10 wins, his hit-rate was a staggering 49.5%. That's an extreme difference.

And if you think one of the best defensive schemers and coaches in the NBA won't take advantage, we think you're sorely mistaken. The Heat could be without Terry Rozier tonight, which would stink considering how electric he's been for Miami, and we already know they'll miss Duncan Robinson. If both ended up not playing that obviously wouldn't be ideal, but the Heat still have more scoring talent than the Hawks. Don't get us wrong - Atlanta's young players are a solid group and without Trae Young they've shown some real grit and resilience. We also tend to think Hawks' coach Quin Snyder is one of the association's premiere leaders. Still, Miami has been in these dances plenty of times before and with the moxie and leadership of Jimmy Butler, we love the Heat to limit Dejounte Murray and secure a win in their final road game of the regular season. Since that's what we expect, a short number won't keep us away from betting the spread.

Farley

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