Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +11½ -107BET365 +11½ -110 Sportsinteraction +11½ -115 888Sport +11½ -117

San Antonio +11½ over New Orleans

Best Odds: -107 at Pinnacle 

8:10 PM EST. The San Antonio Spurs have been playing their asses off and oddsmakers still don't respect it. The proof is right there in the data. San Antonio has covered in five straight contests (and 7 of their last 8) and they're beating the spread by an average margin of 4.4 ppg. Victor Wembanyama is obviously the most exciting and interesting part of their recent surge (the French freak had 9 blocks against Jokic and the Nuggets three nights ago, geez!), but whether he's in the lineup or not, the Spurs have been extremely competitive. The rest of their current roster is an assembly of no-names: Tre Jones, Malaki Branham, Julian Champagnie, Blake Wesley, etc. - but that doesn't mean they're not deserving. Over their latest stretch of five straight ATS covers, their offense has peeked out from the bottom rung and is consistently producing (114 ppg), and their defense is rated #9 overall. Unsurprisingly, the 5-time NBA-championship winning coach Gregg Popovich has fostered more talent than we previously thought, and they seem close to taking the NBA world by storm. Something to watch out for next season.

But we're still in the 2024 campaign and we get why New Orleans is so heavily favored tonight. After some recent, disappointing losses, the Pelicans sit in 7th in the West, which means they'd have to compete in the play-in tournament if the regular season ended today. In other words - they're pissed. Those losses came against good teams: Phoenix, Orlando, Boston, but it's also shown a wrinkle in the Pels' form. Without Brandon Ingram, who suffered a knee injury and will remain out for at least another week, the Pelicans' offense has dropped to 20th in their last 5 games. Without Jose Alvarado, the pesky guard who's also a spark plug for their bench and for his team when they need it most, New Orleans' defense has dropped to 24th.

That's not reminiscent of the program we saw in March, where they went 9-4 straight up and rose to a top-5 outfit in the West, but it's who they are right now. And even if they were the mighty-version of March, do we think they'd cover against a Spurs' squad that's having fun and overwhelming other teams from the opening tipoff on a consistent basis? Probably not. The Spurs and their "shallow" roster don't see themselves as underdogs, nor do they see any reason to throw in the towel and stop playing hard. San Antonio's guys are young, hungry, and competing for their futures. We'll take the NBA's spunkiest pooch, at a number that's way too inflated. We have it as Pelicans -7½.

Farley

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------