Posted at 12:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Minnesota over Phoenix

Best Odds: +150 at Pinnacle 

10:10 PM EST. If you know this site at all then you know we're not huge fans of the Phoenix Suns. At this point we probably sound like broken records if you've read any of our previous articles on the overblown, market-inflated team from Arizona, but in case you missed it we'll make our case again.

First things first - it's not like we're ignorant to how potent the Suns can be when everything is working in-sync. The problem is, the tiniest, most rudimentary thing can send the Suns into a tailspin, and we think that's because of many intangible factors that they're missing. Frank Vogel became their new head coach this season after several years of promising but disappointing results under Monty Williams, a militaristic leader who might not vibe with the kind of high-profile talent Phoenix has on its roster. Vogel can't seem to get away from teams like this; his first gig was with the Lakers as their HC, and lord knows the drama and relationship massaging that must occur when LeBron James is on your team. Either way, as a current borderline play-in team, we can't say Vogel has been all that effective in Phoenix, either.

Regardless, the central flaw of the Suns is evident in simple observation, and we've seen it time and time again. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are undoubtedly their on-court leaders, but neither guy has the makeup to be one. Bradley Beal, who's always been a part of losing teams, is a great scorer but hardly considered a leader in any circumstance. While the trio can be insanely lethal because of their pure-shooting talent, it doesn't eliminate their proclivity to flounder against great teams. If you look at the win-loss column of the Suns' schedule this season, most of their victories come against teams that are either younger or just plain bad. Their losses come against teams that are more experienced and know how to succeed, outfits like Golden State, the L.A. Clippers, the L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, etc. Somehow they beat the Nuggets in two out of three contests, that's an outlier, but for the most part they don't get by programs that know how to win.

That's because when the going-gets-tough, no one knows who to turn to. Sure, Durant and Booker might nail a shot, and then another shot, and then another shot to elevate their side of the scoreboard, but no one player is pushing his colleagues to be better, nor is anyone calm under pressure or teaching on the court. Leaders become leaders because of their actions and the influence that follows. We see that in obvious fashion with guys like LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Chris Paul, Steph Curry, Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant, and even Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard. Of course there are others, too, but you get the point. The Suns also don't have an enforcer, a dude like Jae Crowder or Grant Williams or Alex Caruso or Draymond Green, who can emotionally fire up their fellow men and compel others towards better performance. All the Suns have is talent, and most of that talent is in their top-3 players. We hate that for them in certain circumstances, especially against a team like MInnesota.

The Timberwolves ascended in assertive fashion this season and there's nothing flukey about it. Superstar guard Anthony Edwards serves as their #1 scorer and spark plug, and the kid is only 22 years old. He already understands how to lead better than Durant and Booker. Furthermore, Minnesota plays as a unit, motivated by disciplined, high-energy defense and with elite size and scoring talent throughout a very deep roster. If the season ended today, they would be the Western Conference's #1 seed. And they have no issue beating elite or more experienced teams. They're 2-1 against Denver, 3-0 against Golden State, 2-1 against the Lakers, 3-1 against the Clippers, and 2-2 against OKC. Over the last two weeks, the T-Wolves are top-rated on offense and defense, and only 2nd in net rating behind Boston. They've been a top-rated team all season.

Somehow the Suns have avoided the new-look Timberwolves for the last five months. Their first battle was in mid-November, a contest where the Suns shot an outrageous 60% from the field while Edwards struggled to score, going just 4-16 from the field. Phoenix ended up winning 133-115, but oh by the way - Minnesota was coming off an away game the night before, another win against Golden State, so their battle at Phoenix was a road-back-to-back. Considering all these factors and who the Timberwolves have become at this point of the season, it should be plain to see why we like the underdog tonight. Hell, we don't think they should be the pooch at all. Forget the spread, give us the way better team to win this rematch straight up.

Farley

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