Posted at 8:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -3½ -107 BET365 -3½ -110 Sportsinteraction -3½ -110 888Sport -3½ -110

New York -3½ over Sacramento

Best Odds: -107 at Pinnacle 

7:30 PM EST. Two days ago we fell flat on our faces as the Knicks succumbed to some grade-A Heat culture (mainly Terry Rozier) and lost us our last wager. What do most bettors do after such a disappointment? They put team A, aka the team that lost them their bet, on the shelf for a bit. They were wrong about them, time to regroup, time to avoid trusting that program for now. It's simple human nature to avoid that which causes you suffering, we get it. But we've also been around the block a few times in this industry. We know that, often, the contrarian approach is the more maTure approach. Yes, we meant to capitalize the "T." Team A, in this case the Knicks, might have betrayed us for one night, but that doesn't define their "true" nature. We know who the Knicks are: a hard-nosed, in your face defense that morphed into an equally explosive offense led by budding star, Jalen Brunson. Now much healthier, their offense was top-5 the last two weeks before their showdown in South Beach, and we think we'll see that same form reflected on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden.

We don't mind that their opponent is the Sacramento Kings, either. Sacramento had a moment in March where their defense performed very well, ranking top 5 overall for a solid two weeks, but it's regressed back to its usual, mediocre form since (17th in their last 5 contests). Still, the strength of the Kings is their offense, even my grandma knows that, but there's reason for concern there, too. Malik Monk, the favorite to win 6th Man of the Year and a spark plug for Sacramento's offense in myriad ways, sprained his MCL in his last showing. He's officially out for 4-6 weeks. Kevin Huerter, their sharp-shooter from three-point land, remains out, too.

Of course De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis and other stalwart Kings' members have enough firepower to score on any defense, but we don't like this matchup for them tonight. Just two weeks ago, a banged up version of the Knicks held a fully-loaded Kings' offense to just 92 points at the Golden 1 Center. Jalen Brunson dropped 42 points on the Kings that evening in yet another display of his range and constant pursuit to the rim. New York was the more physical team and imposed their will defensively, allowing only 36 points in the paint and 27% hit-rate from beyond the arc.

Will the Kings regress and seek revenge after that embarrassing loss two weeks ago? Perhaps, but that still doesn't mean they can match the intensity of an above-average Knicks' squad, at home, and now off three straight losses. With only just over a week of action left and the Heat and Pacers breathing down their necks, the Knicks need a win to find some grounding before things get unnecessarily out of hand. A dip into the play-in tournament isn't out of the question, if they don't. Their defensive success against Sacramento in game one revealed a size and strength advantage, and we imagine the return of Mitchell Robinson, who in 3 games back is already making crucial defensive stops and snagging rebounds in big-game moments, will only add to that edge. We also love Jalen Brunson, who struggled mightily against Miami on Tuesday, to find his mojo in front of his beloved fans. This is a great spot to bet on the home team chalk, so bet it we will!

Farley

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