Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +5½ -104 BET365 +5½ -110 Sportsinteraction +5½ -110 888Sport +5½ -110

Cleveland +5½ over Phoenix

Best Odds: -104 at Pinnacle 

10:10 PM EST. This season hasn't progressed in a way the Phoenix Suns expected, and now they're trying to make up for lost ground. With more random injuries nagging their roster, it was tough for their ultra talented starting-5 to get off the ground in the fall, although eventually Devin Booker, Kevin, Durant, and Bradley Beal showed how potent they could really be in early 2024. Phoenix ascended to a top-5 offense in January, which finally created some separation between the Ws and Ls in their record, but it didn’t last. More out-of-sync showings from their roster led to unfulfilled offensive potential and a defense that's never been graded better than average all season. And of course, in the more talented Western Conference, their record just hasn't held up. As of today they sit in the 8th spot, tied with Sacramento at 44-31 but the Kings own a tiebreaker thanks to conference wins. In any case, this is not where Phoenix expected to be at this juncture, certainly not with their breadth of scoring talent.

Regardless, in the 8th spot they remain, still with ample time to catch up and at least attempt an escape from the play-in tournament, although the schedule doesn't look particularly promising. They have one of the harder final stretches of any team we're seeing, starting tonight. Their final 7 contests are against Cleveland, Minnesota, New Orleans, the L.A. Clippers twice, Sacramento, and another against Minnesota. That's a who's'-who of elites in the West following Wednesday's affair, which makes tonight's matchup all the more vital. Predictably, the Suns' offense has led them throughout March, although a 9-8 result is hardly what they were hoping for last month. Sadly, winning about 50% of their games has been their norm, and why bettors can rarely trust the overvalued franchise.

That’s not the case for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and now they’re getting healthier. The last time these two outfits faced each other in early March, Kevin Durant went off for 37 points and the Suns won 117-111. But it’s important to know that Cleveland was without Evan Mobley, Max Strus, and Donovan Mitchell. All three are projected to play tonight. But even without their full roster, the Cavs were very competitive throughout their first battle, gaining as much as a 19-point lead early in the first half. The Suns would go on to surge in the third quarter, and they just shot better overall (54.8% compared to Cleveland's 47.6%). We expect the Cavs to keep up in the rematch. With their roster back to full health, the Cavs are a top 5 offense the last 10 days. 

Neither program is playing great defense right now, so we lean to the over in this contest, but we like another angle better. The Cavs should come out with malicious intent after losing to the Suns so recently, and after Donovan Mitchell sat Tuesday night for injury management, we expect him to return for this showdown. Cleveland is also in a brand new position, just 1.5 games behind Milwaukee for the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

But even without that added motivation, the Cavs haven’t had a full rotation of guys for many stretches this season. We imagine they’d love to gain momentum and reignite team chemistry before the postseason. The volatile Suns can always explode and beat a great team— hell Devin Booker scored 52 in a blowout win at New Orleans two days ago— but a fully-loaded Cleveland squad isn’t something we can ignore, either. The Cavs did whatever they wanted Tuesday night at Utah, without their #1 scorer, and they used plenty of bench help to earn another victory. Tonight's underdog has the better defensive roster, a legitimate size/physicality advantage, and their offense is as potent as any team when they're this healthy. The Cavs could easily win straight up, so we must take the points.

Farley

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