Posted at 9:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +4 -104 BET365 +4½ -115 Sportsinteraction +3½ +100 888Sport +4½ -110

Washington 1Q +4 over Milwaukee

Best Odds: -104 at Pinnacle 

7:10 PM EST. The Washington Wizards will kick off the Tuesday evening slate in the way they always do, at the most forgettable time of the NBA schedule at 7:10PM EST. But that's not breaking news; the Wizards know they didn't do anything impressive this season and that they're likely very far from becoming a contender. They're like the Blazers and Nets and Pistons in this way - sad teams that haven't seemed to improve at all. And for the most part this is still true. The Wizards are statistically a bottom-5 team this season, in both offense and defense, and they resemble a group of misfit toys. Many of their "leaders" are throwaways from winning franchises - the Lakers gave up on Kyle Kuzma, the Warriors sent Jordan Poole packin', Detroit ousted Marvin Bagley III; we could go on and on.  We realize DC needs change and they need it fast, although lately, the younger studs on Washington's roster are doing their best to change the script.

Washington hasn't lost by 13 or more points in six straight games. We know, that's not a huge accomplishment for most teams, but it is when you're concerned about the spread. The Wizards had their best stretch of the season to end March, including three straight wins (vs. SAC, CHI, and TOR), an OT battle against Brooklyn, and most recently a game where they once led by 8 points against Miami. They ended up losing by 12. Poole and Bagley have stepped up their game recently, combining for 35 ppg in their last six contests. Deni Avdija and Corey Kispert are thriving with Kuzma out, combining for 35 ppg in their last 6 contests, too. And other young guys like Anthony Gill, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and the often forgotten Jared (not Jimmy) Butler are making the most out of their extra opportunities. It makes sense that interim coach Brian Keefe and the Wizards' front office want to see what their greener men can do, and so far it's paying dividends. The Wizards are fighting with the energy of guys that want to elevate and prolong their careers in the NBA, and this is their time to show it. 

The Bucks, on the other hand, are in a great position, and we're not sure how motivated they'll be Tuesday night. With just 8 games left and many favorable games following tonight (MEM, TOR are next), the Bucks are looking like a lock to earn the 2nd seed in the East. Boston already clinched the conference, but Milwaukee has a 2.5-game lead on the Cavs, and the Cavs don't have an easy end to their schedule (tougher games include at Suns, at Lakers, and at Clippers, and later vs. Indiana). We know that Damian Lillard won't play, but Giannis Antetokounmpo, Patrick Beverly, and Khris Middleton are all listed as probable. It wouldn't surprise us to see one or more of those dudes in street clothes before the contest begins, especially since the Bucks have a rough travel-spot 24 hours later vs. Memphis on Wednesday night.  But even if they all do play, the latest edition of the Wizards is top-5 in defensive efficiency (last 6 games), and we're not sure the away-team will see it coming. 

Demotivated programs tend to let down early in games and then recover and rally later in the second half under these circumstances. Monday night we saw it with Boston, losing the first quarter outright at Charlotte and barely surviving the first half. They went on to win by 14. The Magic almost got caught by the Blazers Monday at home, losing the first quarter and getting outscored 30-21 in the fourth, nearly losing the contest (they won, 104-103). The Timberwolves were blown out by the Bulls at home in the 1st quarter on Sunday and ended up losing straight up, too. We see this psychological phenomenon and the aforementioned result all too often at this time of the year, and at this point we'd be foolish to ignore it. We like the home team early.

Farley

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