Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +133 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +125 888Sport +120

New York ML over Miami

Best Odds: +133 at Pinnacle

7:40 PM EST. First of all, let's get this straight - there should be no difference in motivation between these two programs. Sure, those who hyper-focus on that part of a handicap could claim that the Heat need to win more than the Knicks, since Miami would love to earn a spot outside the play-in tournament and they still remain in 7th. That's true, no team wants that, but the Knicks are also just 3 games out of the 7th spot, too. Our point is, while intangibles matter greatly, these are two teams in very similar situations.

They're also very similar teams, period. The Knicks and Heat are both built around their defenses, and it shows in the stats. New York and Miami permit some of the lowest totals of any team on average - 107.9 for NYK, 108.5 for MIA - both top 5 marks. They're also both top-5 in defensive efficiency in March, which they've both needed to secure wins and to maintain their position before the postseason. Knicks' coach Tom Thibodeau and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra are known for their culture-building, constructing teams that are gritty, tenacious, and relentless on defense, especially when a contest gets close. For the third time this season, the Knicks and Heat will clash just two weeks before the play-in tournament begins, and we're confident it'll be another physical battle.

But there's a distinct difference between these teams, too, and it's a big reason why New York is 2-0 against their rival this season. The Knicks' offense is just better. Their acquisition of Jalen Brunson last season was huge for the potential of their franchise, an outfit that's been good-not-great in the scoring department for way too long. Brunson has changed that, becoming a true #1 for his roster, averaging 28 ppg and shooting 48% from the field in his first full year with the team. From December through January, New York became a top-5 offense thanks to Brunson's magic, allowing other supporting cast members to take on more comfortable roles. Refining their roster even more, the Knicks' front office traded away Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett, two guys that were once seen as offensive cogs but had too many subpar performances, especially in big games. They became dead-weight, and the addition of OG Anunoby gave Thibodeau's team another dynamic two-way player that fit perfectly into his culture.

Injuries have stunted the Knicks somewhat in late February and March, which naturally affected their offense, but they're getting healthier as the playoffs loom. Anunoby and Julius Randle remain out, but recently Mitchell Robinson returned and Brunson is 100% after missing some time a few weeks ago. We're seeing the difference - New York has surged to the top of the charts the last two weeks, rated 2nd only to Boston in offensive efficiency. That's not a fact we love for the home-team tonight.

The Miami Heat are always capable of rising to the occasion and rounding into top-form when the going gets tough, but there's no denying how much they miss Tyler Herro. Their sharpshooting guard was having a great season, averaging 21 ppg and an impressive 40% hit rate from beyond the arc. Immediately following the All-Star break, Herro incurred a foot injury and the Heat offense hasn't been the same since. Miami rates just 17th on offense since Herro went down, but the reality is they haven't been very good all season. Jimmy Butler doesn't play consistently, something that messes with team chemistry, other injuries haven't helped (Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, and Terry Rozier have all missed time recently), and when Butler isn't at his best, they struggle to hang with high-scoring opposition. We're sure Spoelstra and the Heat will figure things out by the postseason, but at this juncture we're not confident that they're ready to take on a program as well-balanced as the Knicks.

And if we want to talk about intangibles and motivation, let's bring up the most relevant angle - the Heat are the team that eliminated the Knicks in last year's Eastern Conference Semifinals. Brunson and the Knicks haven't forgotten, we assure you that, and they've been on a mission all year to prove that they're a true contender. New York is showing remnants of its top-form again, likely excited about the return of so many key players, and we love that momentum heading into this contest. We also don't mind that New York lost two close, heartbreaking games leading up to this battle, so they should come out with vengeful fire. Miami is coming off two wins versus non-playoff teams (slow-clap/yawn). We'll take the away team; NYK should not be the underdog.

Farley

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