Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle U205½ -103 BET365 U205½ -110 Sportsinteraction U205½ -110 888Sport U205½ -110

Memphis/Orlando under 205½

Best Odds: -103 at Pinnacle 

7:10 PM EST. The Grizzlies and Magic total is low and getting lower, a movement we do not disagree with. Let's discuss the underdog first. The Memphis Grizzlies are the lowest scoring team in the NBA, more miserable offensively than bottom-feeder teams like the Blazers, Hornets, and Pistons. Most of that is because of how many devastating injuries they've experienced this season. Ja Morant, their star and one of the NBA's most entertaining scorers, served a 25-game suspension to start the NBA calendar. Right after he returned, the Grizzlies immediately started scoring higher totals and winning games. Then it all ended just as swiftly. Ja Morant suffered a shoulder-tear in early January, effectively ending his season, and predictably the Grizzlies haven't been the same since. They also lost stalwart contributors like Dillon Brooks in the offseason, and now other quality starters like Desmond Bane and Vince Williams Jr. recently incurred injuries and won't be playing on Saturday, either. The Grizzlies have still managed to maintain a top-11 defense even with a shallow roster, much of that because of last season's defensive player of the year, Jaren Jackson Jr. Not shockingly, many of their contests are low-scoring as a result. Lately they've faced some faster-paced programs and some of their totals have gotten inflated because of it, but when they face an opponent like they will tonight, the scoreboard doesn't get much love. Off 3 solid days of rest, their defensive gas tank should be full; can't say we trust their offensive potential to the same degree.

That's especially true against the Orlando Magic. We've talked about the Magic's defensive prowess at length on this site this season, and it's certainly a sight to behold. Following three straight losses, matchups that they no-doubt expected to win, we imagine it'll be as fierce as ever tonight. Besides, it's been Orlando's offense that's had issues, a fact we don't hate for our wager. Against the Kings they only shot 47.7%, versus Golden State just 44%, and last night against the Clippers- a grotesque 42%. All three of those outfits are exceptionally talented on offense, but they're also fighting for better playoff positioning and enforcing better defensive effort, something that's gravely affected Orlando's ability to put up points. Some of this regression was expected - we don't think the Magic are among the top teams in the association just yet - but at least tonight they face a program that they can defeat even if their offense is subpar. Still, despite facing three elite offenses this past week, Magic games only averaged 202 ppg.

Which is yet another reason why we love the under tonight. Orlando has work to do offensively, but they don't have enough time to improve in just 24 hours. After just playing last night, the Magic need to turn around and compete again Saturday. The Magic have maintained one of the best defenses in the NBA, ranked 2nd in March, and they move at a sloth's pace, 23rd in tempo this month. Memphis is not far off: offensively challenged, slow moving, formidable defensively. This is a clash of two similar styles and we're not hesitating to fire a wager for fewer points because of it - we have this at 199.

Farley

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