Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -4 -104 BET365 -4 -110 Sportsinteraction -3½ -115 888Sport -3½ -118

Milwaukee -4 over Atlanta

Best Odds: -104 at Pinnacle 

7:40 PM EST. Forget what we know about the Hawks and Bucks and let's just consider the market's position on this game. The Hawks just completed one of the more shocking upsets in NBA history, overcoming a +17½ underdog spread against Boston two nights ago and not just covering but beating the mighty Celtics outright at home. The fans and celebrities of Atlanta were raucous throughout that contest, a game where the Hawks stayed competitive and kept it close for all four quarters. One of our favorite picks of the year, we took Atlanta at that massive line because it didn't make sense on so many levels. The new-look Hawks are better on defense and without Trae Young, seem to have more chemistry with Dejounte Murray as their lead-scorer. Speaking of Murray, he exploded and scored all 11 points for his team in overtime, finishing with a 44/7/7 stat-line. The Hawks were also more physical and tenacious on defense, showing zero-signs of intimidation against the Eastern Conference's #1 seed, and proving they might be a formidable threat if they end up making the postseason.

In short, oddsmakers and sharps are viewing the Hawks as a completely different outfit right now, despite their many shortcomings this season.

If this were any other point of the season, the Hawks would absolutely not be getting this much credit from the books, even at home, and even though Damian Lillard won't play today. We promise. Atlanta remains the worst ATS team in the association (just 37% full season), and although lately they've obviously performed better, we see massive regression incoming. Quin Snyder is an excellent coach and the Hawks have formidable talent, don't get us wrong, but they're still a new assembly of parts, often unable to find a rhythm on either side of the court, and their defense has been virtually nonexistent for huge stretches of the season. And lately when Dejounte Murray doesn't have a massive game, their offense really struggles, too. Saturday presents one of the most obvious let-down spots we've seen this season, and we plan on taking full advantage.

It helps that the Bucks are off two straight fails. Giannis and his team had disappointing results lately, including another loss against Boston on March 20th, following by two consecutive losses this week, first against the Lakers in OT and two days ago versus a feisty Pelicans' squad, one that was intent on seeking their own revenge after a big loss against OKC. But make no mistake about it, the Bucks are still an elite contender in the East, as they have been all year. In fact, they're so deeply talented that even though they rank 9th in net rating among all NBA teams, they've still managed to record the 3rd most wins. No Lillard tonight (personal reasons) is an obvious loss, but the Bucks have always been Giannis' team and these are the situations where he typically explodes. Look at any of his prop-lines for this contest and you'll see gargantuan numbers for the Greek-freak, like a 33½-point prop and 53½ PRA prop at most books. Last time these two squads faced off, Giannis had 10 rebounds, 11 assists, and 33 points, something oddsmakers are expecting will happen again and then some. Milwaukee won that battle 132-121.

Buy-low, sell-high tactics apply in sports betting as much as they do in the stock market, and in this case study we're purchasing an elite company that's getting vastly underrated because of some recent gaffes, while we're selling another institution whose recent success is very likely just a moment in time. We're on the road chalk, with authority.

Farley

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