Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ +137 BET365  -1½ +125 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +125 888Sport  -1½ +125

Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas

2:35 PM EST. Louis Castillo (RHP - SEA) has some ugly surface stats and a brutal 1-4 record, but that has left him undervalued and under the radar despite some solid underlying numbers. Castillo’s ERA is 4.40, but his xERA is much better at 2.89, and he’s also sporting a sparkling 36:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 28.2 IP. Castillo’s last start, while it came against the Rockies, was nearly flawless, as he retired 11 of the first 12 batters he faced while also not allowing anyone to reach second base in his 7 IP.

Last year we warned of wide uncertainty bars for Andrew Haney (LHP - TEX) and he quickly gave up most of his 2022 skill gains. His swing and miss rate plummeted, which led to a corresponding dip in K%, all while posting the worst BB% of his career. His ERA and xERA history both suggest that 2023 is the true representation of who he is. Dude has been worse this year with 9 walks in 17 innings to go along with an alarming ground ball/Fly-ball rate of 33%/55%. This is a weak pitcher who figures to get crooked numbers put up against him all year long. We’ll test that theory here, and look for the M’s to pile on the runs.

Sherwood

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