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Posted at 10:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

L.A. Angels over Cleveland

6:10 PM EST. Reid Detmers (LHP - LAA) is coming off his worst start of the season, an outing in which he gave up five runs on nine hits over five IP versus the Twins last Sunday. It was Detmers' second loss in a row, but two downturns do not make a season and prior to that, he had 30 Ks in 22.2 IP. Even with two less-than-stellar outings, Detmers has an xERA of 2.90 with 37 Ks to just 10 BBs in 34.2 IP. Today there is an opportunity to “buy low” on the lefty and we’re not going to pass it up.

If we are “buying low” on Detmers, then consider Ben Lively (RHP - CLE) a “sell high” candidate, as he is one of the bigger SP surprises this season, as he brings a tidy 2.30 ERA after 15.2 innings pitched across three starts, which is much lower than the bloated 5.38 mark he posted in 2023.

A big reason for that drop is the fact that Lively has an uptick in his strikeout rate and a drop in his walk rate over last season, where his xERA was just about as bad as his surface number at 5.03. Lively's xERA in 2024 is 3.51, which suggests that he’s been on the lucky side so far, as does his 90.2% strand rate and a very weak groundball rate of 21.1%. To summarize, Lively’s surface stats are not sustainable and a correction to the negative could be coming sooner rather than later.

Sherwood

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