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Posted at 2:30 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. Masahiro Tanaka’s 4.54 ERA is one of the most misleading and unluckiest ERA’s in the game that we’ll attempt to take advantage of because this is one of the best starters in baseball. Tanaka has a BB/K split of 36/158 in 155 innings. You would be hard-pressed to find better ratios. He also has an elite 51% groundball rate, which has been even better at 64% over his last three starts. With a 72% first-pitch strike rate, an elite groundball rate, elite control and an elite 3.42 xERA, Tanaka is exactly the type of pitcher we want to get behind at this hitter’s haven. His chances of dominating or having a solid outing are about 400% better than Martin Perez’s chances.

Perez has a WHIP of 1.58 so he’s always at the mercy of strand rate because there is always traffic. He has a dreadful BB/K split of 52/98 in 157 frames. When Perez pitches and has a good pitching line on paper, it is always because of a hit%/strands%-fueled mirage. He has 22 K’s over his last 40 innings so he’s going to put the ball in play and be at the mercy of both BABIP and strand rate. That’s not a good strategy against the Yanks. Other signs are ominous too with his poor xERA holding very steady for years. Lots and lots of bad innings is what Perez provides.

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