Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 2:30 PM EST.
7:10 PM EST. Chris Archer has a BB/K split of 52/225 in 179 innings. He’s as likely to throw a gem as any pitcher in baseball. When Archer does blow-up, it is fueled by hit % and hr/f variances that can occur at any time to any pitcher, even Clayton Kershaw (see last night). Archer is the straight goods, whose skills this year are the best we've ever seen from him. There's plenty of profit in backing this ace when taking back a tag and that applies here. Chris Archer’s xERA of 3.01 since the beginning of August is the best xERA in the game over that span.
Our outlook for Drew Pomeranz seemed clear when we wrote "1H version (2.65 ERA) not coming back; heed xERA (4.15) for most likely outcome." So far we've nailed it, as Pomeranz has put up a pedestrian 4.45 xERA and 1.38 WHIP through 27 starts. Anything different beneath the surface? Not really, as the Ks are nice, but control issues persist. Pomeranz has walked 59 batters in 147 frames but he is not throwing enough strikes nor is he getting ahead in the count enough, which all but cements another subpar control season. Pomeranz has walked 15 batters over his past 27 innings. He continues to provide a strong K foundation, as he features two primary pitches: a four-seam fastball that generates a bunch of whiffs (52% of pitches; 12% swing and miss rate) with a complementary curveball (36%; 10%). However, since the beginning of August, Pomeranz’s skills are in big decline with an 8% swing and miss rate to go along with an xERA of 5.03 and an unsightly WHIP of 1.54. At this point, Pomeranz provides mediocre ratios with a healthy dose of strikeouts but that’s not enough to be priced in this range against one of MLB’s best.
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Tampa Bay +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)