Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 12:40 PM EST.
8:10 PM EST. When something doesn’t make sense, alarm bells go off over here and this is one of those games in which the line makes no sense whatsoever. That has us looking towards the side that the books have taken a “position” on.
Cole Hamels is at home here, where he is 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA. Hamels has pedigree, market familiarity, and an overall 9-2 record this season with a 3.78 ERA. The Rangers are also at home after taking two of three from the popular Astros at a neutral site. Furthermore, Hamels is a southpaw and he’ll face an Angels’ squad that is dead last in MLB in OPS versus lefties. We also see a heavy market lean towards the Rangers, yet the Halos opened as the chalk and at the time of this writing, they’re still the chalk. Why?
Tyler Skaggs has a fraction of the market recognition that Hamels has. Tyler Skaggs also has one victory this year in 10 starts, not to mention a 5.87 ERA over his last three starts. The Angels are 31-34 on the road while the Rangers are 35-29 at home. One could break this one down 100 ways and not come up with a valid reason as to why the Angels are road chalk here. If lines are based on starters, Texas must be favored. If lines are based on starters, plus home-field advantage, plus home/road splits, Texas must be favored but they’re not. Why? Again, the books have taken a position here and we want to be on the same side as they are. You should want to be also. We could play the Angels straight up in a near pick-em game but we like to go for the kill so pencil us in on the run-line. If you are on board for this game, you may want to wait until later in the day because by game time, we have a suspicion that the Rangers will be favored.
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L.A. Angels -1½ +151 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.02)