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Posted at 2:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

N.Y. Yankees -1½ over Houston

7:05 PM EST. Luis Gil (RHP - NYY) has been a nice boost for the Yankees rotation, as he’s provided some quality innings at the back end of that unit, picking up a couple of wins along the way, including a victory against the hard-hitting Orioles, pitching 6.1 scoreless innings. Gil’s fastball was working in that game as six of the nine whiffs he engineered were with that heater that averaged nearly 96 MPH. Gil enters his seventh turn of the season with a solid 3.19 ERA, but his xERA is even better at 2.30. He has 40 Ks in 31 IP and his swing and miss rate is nearing elite territory at 11.4%.

If you can rely on three things at the moment, they are death, taxes, and our fading Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) until we cannot fade him anymore. Verlander remains one of the most overvalued starting pitchers in the market because of the positive-looking results on the surface, but there are cracks in his foundation, friends.

Verlander is coming off a no-decision over the Guardians last Wednesday, where he allowed two earned runs, but gave up six hits and walked three while striking out just two. For a dude who made his fortune on flaming guys, Verlander’s strikeout prowess is fading and it has been for five years. After peaking in 2018 with a strikeout rate of 12.20 K/9, Verlander is down to just 6.75 K/9. This year is not an anomaly either, as over 162.1 IP last season, Verlander's K-rate was just 7.98 K/9 and he barely averaged a K per inning in 2022, in case you are keeping track at home.

Back to his start versus Cleveland, where Verlander put the leadoff man on base in four of seven innings and had to work from behind again, as he did in his prior start versus the Cubs on April 25. In his three starts since missing the start of the year with injury, Verlander has pitched 17.1 innings, struck out just 13 while walking 7. Sure, his surface ERA shines at 2.08, but his xERA is 4.70 and he also sports a very lucky strand rate of 93%. So yeah, we're coming right back at Verlander today, with no fear and no mercy! Yanks on the run line is how we are going to play this one.

Sherwood

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