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Posted at 8:30 AM EST.

7:05 PM EST. There’s a lot to like in Jameson Taillon’s profile. He's getting a few more swings and misses than he did a season ago. Given his top prospect pedigree, more whiffs could be in his future. He keeps the ball on the ground at an extremely high rate, and plays in a home park that plays neutral for LHB, while reducing RHB homers by 24 percent. Taillon isn't going to run into too many problems via the long ball and is also due for some better luck on balls in play. Taillon 6.75 ERA over his last three starts is nothing to be concerned about because he's been solid all year with few disasters. He's combined a strong ground ball tilt with the ability to miss some bats and his top of the rotation upside remains intact. That said, this wager is all about fading Adam Wainwright.

Adam Wainwright’s ERA over his last three starts was 3.45. We cannot over-emphasize the extreme luck that accompanied it. In his last start against Atlanta, Wainwright was in trouble in every inning but somehow escaped by allowing just one run because the Braves hit into three-double plays in those five frames. Wainwright struck out zero batters in that start and his fastball was topping out at 83 MPH. On TV, the Cardinals announcers even mentioned the lack of velocity and suggested that Wainwright hasn’t been right for several starts in succession. Over his last 21 innings, Wainwright has walked 10 and struck out seven lousy batters or one batter every three innings. Adam Wainwright has 12 wins this season against five losses. When it’s all said and done, this might end up being the luckiest season by a starter that we’ve ever seen. Wainwright’s skills project him to be closer to 4-13 (W/L) as opposed to 12-5. Wainwright’s xERA is 5.87 and even that’s generous because of the pitcher’s park’s he’s mostly pitched in. If his luck holds up again, oh well but this is a starter that must be faded because he’s a massive disaster waiting to happen.   

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