Cincinnati @ PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati +145 over PITTSBURGH

BEST LINES: Pinnacle +145 Bet365 +140 SportsInteraction +140 5DIMES +139

Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

7:05 PM EST. Chad Kuhl was a lightly regarded prospect entering 2016 but a strong 84 innings showing at Triple-A (2.37 ERA) earned him a late-June promotion to Pittsburgh, where he posted a respectable 4.20 ERA in 71 IP. This year, Kuhl’s ERA is 4.84, his xERA is 4.68 but his xERA over his last three starts is 6.28. Kuhl’s plight is not an unusual one in that his effectiveness is diminishing the second and third time that teams’ see him. Kuhl has decent stuff but he desperately needs to find an answer vs. lefties and he needs to have better control. Kuhl’s K% has grown from 14% to 21% vs. lefties but a rise in BB% has left him with the same subpar command he sported vs. LHB in 2016. His struggles against left-handed hitters are a serious concern that must be addressed. His BB/K split of 44/84 in 102 frames reveals a weak ratio. His 1.48 WHIP over his past 10 starts reveals too much traffic on the bases. The price on Kuhl and the Pirates today reveals too much risk and not enough reward.

Looking at Sal Romano’s career minor league numbers will show that of the 131 games he’s pitched in, he’s started 130 of them. Keep your eye on Sal Romano because his value is down right now but that could change quickly. The 6’4”, 270-pound behemoth relies on a brutal plus fastball that can touch 100 mph in short stints. Backing that up is an above-average slider in the high-80s that features late break, but he needs to work on softening the pitch to improve his command of it. Romano has a high-energy, bulldog demeanor on the mound, likes to challenge hitters, and isn’t afraid to come inside against power bats. He’s got over 600 minor league innings to his names so now is his time to prove he belongs. Romano has whiffed 21 batters over his last 19 innings since his second call-up of the season roughly three weeks ago. He has an elite 54% groundball rate and an exceptional 13% line-drive rate. His only flaw is his control (17 BB in 23 innings) but if he’s throwing strikes, he becomes as tough as shoe leather. So, we have risk and reward with both pitchers but the Reds have excelled in this park, Romano has more upside than Kuhl and Cinci is taking back a tag.

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas