BEST LINES: Pinnacle +160 Bet365 +160 SportsInteraction +165 5DIMES +160

Posted at 3:45 PM EST. 

8:05 PM EST. If you bet the Cubbies here, you will be paying a massive premium to back the second best starter in the game and you’ll also pay extra to bet on Chicago at Wrigley. Regardless of outcome, this is great value that must be played. Jon Lester has eight wins in 22 starts. He’s lost only six times but his velocity is down while both his WHIP and xERA are up over last year’s mark. Jon Lester’s first-pitch strike rate is below average at 54%. The dude can pitch but he’s not the pitcher he used to be and we’ve seen plenty of shaky outings from him all year long. He’s also been tagged for 19 jacks in 130 frames overall and he’s been tagged for two jacks in three of his last four starts. Fatigue setting in perhaps? Even if it’s not fatigue, Lester is beatable these days.

Buy skills and not stats is something we always preach. This is another example of that. Patrick Corbin might not seem like someone worth targeting given his 4.36 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. However, few starters have enjoyed a bigger skills growth from 2016 (4.49 xERA) to 2017 (3.41 xERA) than Corbin has. An inflated 36% hit rate (don’t ignore the park he pitches in) has been the real reason for his surface struggles. With an elite 2.88 xERA over the last 30 days that has been supported by a top-tier 14% swing and miss rate, a 70% first-pitch strike rate, a 50% groundball rate and 34 K’s over his past 29 innings, Corbin makes for a prime stretch-run target. At this price, he and the “going for it” Snakes are absolutely worth a bet. Big overlay here.

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