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Posted at 11:20 AM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. The Reds have two victories in 15 games since the All-Star break. They scored three in the first inning last night and didn’t score again until a meaningless run crossed the plate in the ninth when they were down 7-3. Now the Reds will take the field with Tim Adleman pitching. Cinci has lost seven of Adleman’s last nine starts. Over that stretch the opposition has scored six or more times in six of those seven losses. Adleman has five wins in 18 starts to go along with a 5.11/5.61 ERA/xERA split. This former Indy leaguer already exceeded expectations by cracking the majors. Too many pitches out of the strike zone, a fly-ball tilt (46% FB’s -35% grounders) a 90-mph fastball and no pedigree all conspire against Adleman and now he’s pitching for the coldest team in the league. His overall 1.38 WHIP has been rising and is at 1.52 since the beginning of June. Adleman has allowed a HR in 11-straight games started.

Adam Conley is a lefty. That, too, works against the Reds because they are 6-20 against southpaws this year, which is by far the worst record in the majors against lefties. In two starts back since being demoted in May, Conley has walked just two batters in 13 innings while striking out eight. His 51%/15%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile stands out in this small sample size. Conley had to endure almost three months of harsh pitching conditions in the PCL league. That may have served him well, as he’s been a different pitcher since his return by keeping hitters completely off balance with an assortment of different speeds and pitches. With a 15%+ swing and miss rate on both his changeup and slider, Conley has the soft stuff to stick in the rotation and in this spot against the Reds, there's some nice profit up for grabs here.

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