BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +162 Bet365 -1½ +160 SportsInteraction -1½ +165 5DIMES -1½ +160

Posted at 11:40 AM EST. 

7:15 PM EST. For whatever reason, some teams thrive at home and look like a completely different team on the road. The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of those teams. Arizona is 36-18 at home but they are three games under .500 at home with a 22-25 record. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are coming on strong after just sweeping the Rockies in impressive fashion. Now the D-Backs are favored because on paper Zach Godley looks like a much better option that Luke Weaver but we’re not so sure about that.

Zack Godley has gotten ahead of hitters at a much higher rate in 2017 (63% first-pitch strike rate) than he did in 2016 (52%). He also has increased his swinging strike rate a ton (11.0% to 14.5%). Those jumps in his command sub-indicators have driven the big improvements in skills from 2016 (6.39 ERA) to 2017 (3.32 ERA). Godley was on fire for a while but has cooled off by allowing 11 earned runs over his past 11.2 innings. Over his last four starts, his first-pitch strike rate is back down to 53%. He’s only made 13 starts this year because he was down in the minors for a while so running into trouble is not new for him. We said last year "when his command is off, he can be hit hard", and that's pretty much what’s happening here. His K’s per batter faced can sometime get very flat and now he’ll face a hot offense. Sure, Godley could thrive here but it is the Cardinals and Luke Weaver that are being sold short here.

Luke Weaver is major league ready. He’s made just two appearances this year both out of the pen but make no mistake that this is a career starter. Weaver goes after hitters with a solid 91-96 mph fastball that he keeps low in the zone with terrific late action. Weaver throws with very clean, athletic mechanics that he repeats consistently and allows him to own plus control and command. His best pitch is a change-up that he has the confidence to use in any count. Because of his quality three-pitch mix, command, and aggressiveness, he registers a lot of strikeouts. At Memphis in the hitter-friend Pacific Coast League, Weaver went 9-1 with 1.81 ERA with 69 K’s in 66 innings. The market won’t see that. Instead, they’ll see two innings in relief this year and a record last year with a 5.70 ERA in 36 innings for the Cards. Ignore that high MLB ERA that was bloated by a 40% hit rate and unlucky BABIP and focus on his underlying skills like 11.1 K’s/9 and 3.16 xERA. This is a quality prospect coming off a an incredible first half in the PCL league whose strong MLB debut was obscured by noise. A buying opportunity awaits.

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks