Baltimore @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -1½ +116 over Baltimore

BEST LINES: Pinnacle -1½ +116 Bet365 -1½ +115 SportsInteraction -1½ +105 5DIMES -1½ +115

Posted at 10:45 AM EST

7:10 PM EST. The second-place Indians went into Minnesota this past weekend for a three-day, four-game series at Target Field and swept the Twins out of first place, thoroughly thrashing Minnesota by a 28-8 aggregate score. In less than 48 hours the Twins went from surprising division leaders to looking like merely something that the defending American League champions had to step over on their inevitable climb back to the playoffs. The Indians then went into Baltimore last night and whacked the Orioles 12-0.

Where it all stands now is that the Indians are seeing beach balls at the plate while the Orioles are seeing BB gun pellets. Furthermore, the Orioles are coming to the park with the mindset that they have to score 10 runs or more to win because their pitching staff couldn’t get Bob Barker out right now. Long innings turn into long days. Long days in this summer heat take a bigger toll when a team is losing so frequently. What we have here is two teams with dramatic differences in mindset and it’s not in the Orioles favor. We can’t even imagine what is going through each individual’s mind on the Orioles, knowing they have to endure another start by Chris Tillman.

Shoulder issues plagued Chris Tillman down the stretch in 2016 and they resurfaced this spring, forcing Tillman to miss all of April. The results have been disastrous (8.07 ERA, 2.10 WHIP) through his first eight starts and there is not a single hint that things are going to get better. Never a control artist, Tillman hasn't been able to hit water from the boat in 2017. His awful first-pitch strike rate and Ball% say that he's deserved the 19 walks he’s issued in 36 frames. In a year when most velocities are up—thanks to different measurement technology—Tillman's has sunk. His meager 7% swing and miss rate says the soft-tossing is here to stay. Sure, he's been hit with some bad luck, but Tillman’s 6.97 xERA and his other skills confirm things have gone off the rails. This type of skills collapse typically reeks of a hidden injury, and given Tillman's April shoulder issues, it's likely that something still isn't right with his arm. With a drop in velocity and his inability to throw strikes or miss bats, Tillman is about to face the hottest hitting team in the majors. We know exactly what to do.

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Our Pick

CLEVELAND -1½ +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)

Boston +121 over Cleveland
Chicago +113 over Houston
Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas