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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

8:10 PM EST. It’s time to switch gears again. The Brewers just finished a four-game set in St. Louis and after losing the first game of a double-header on Tuesday, they won the nightcap and the next two to take three out of four in St. Louis. Much of the general public got buried in that series and now they’ll switch gears and hop on the Crew while we’ll take the opposite approach. Milwaukee’s stock is a bit too high and with the Padres coming in for a weekend series, we may catch the Crew off guard here. The Brewers focus may be off too. You see, there’s a big golf tournament in the area that is about 30 miles from Miller Park and some players have even suggested that they would love to get over there. That’s probably not possible but anything that can take away focus helps.

Junior Guerra is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA after five starts. Guerra was sidelined earlier after leaving his Opening Day start after three innings with a calf strain so he’s still behind the rest of the league. His 2.45 ERA on paper looks very pretty against a Padres lineup that struggles on the road but we’re not in the habit of backing misleading ERA’s and we’re surely not going to get into that habit here. Guerra’s xERA is 5.15. He has walked 13 batters in 26 innings but an unsustainable 90% strand rate makes him look much better than he actually is. From his 58% first-pitch-strike rate to his below average 42% groundball rate to his 10% swing and miss rate and to his 0% pure quality starts, Guerra is about as ordinary as they come. Win or lose here, Guerra is overpriced to be sure.

Miguel Diaz does not look pretty on paper with a 6.92 ERA after one start and 21 relief appearances. Diaz is another Rule-5 player that the Padres have to keep on their MLB roster for the entire season otherwise they risk losing him and that’s something they do not want to risk. Incidentally, Diaz came over from the Brewers and now he’ll face the team that gave up on him. Diaz’s best pitch is a plus 94-96 mph fastball that he gets good tailing life on due to his short, quick arm action. Diaz is much more comfortable as a starter, as that’s been his role his entire career and it’s also worth noting that he held the opposition to a .233 BA in the minors. Indeed this kid is raw and there is always a risk when backing raw rookies but his feet are wet and he has produced a 13% swing and miss rate in his 26 innings at this level so far. Diaz has 19 K’s in those 26 innings and while he has waked too many (16), he has the ability to be effectively wild against a Brewers’ team that has struck out more times than any team in the NL and that might be way out of focus here.

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